Name: Will any state submit ballot-mail data to USPS?
Start: 2026-09-02T23:00:00.000Z
End: 2026-11-03T15:00:00.000Z

Question 1

What does the USPS ballot data market dashboard track?

Accepted Answer

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the USPS ballot data market tracks the current price of contracts, reflecting trader predictions about whether any state will submit ballot-mail data to the United States Postal Service. You can also view the 24-hour trading volume, which is currently $3, and the total volume traded to date, at $1,782. The dashboard provides a visual representation of how the market is moving and the level of interest in this question. It's a key tool for understanding where traders stand on the likelihood of this event occurring.

Question 2

How do prediction market odds compare to analyst forecasts?

Accepted Answer

Currently, the odds reflected in this market represent a unique perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts and polling data. While polls attempt to gauge public opinion, this market reflects what people are *willing to bet* on, which can differ significantly. Analysts might focus on legal hurdles or political feasibility, but this market incorporates a broader range of factors, including unforeseen events and insider information. It’s important to remember that prediction markets often offer a different signal than traditional forecasting methods, potentially identifying overlooked probabilities.

Question 3

How is this market priced on Kalshi?

Accepted Answer

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief in the likelihood of the event. The price of a contract ranges from 0 to 100, representing a probability percentage. A price of 50 means the market believes there’s a 50% chance of any state submitting ballot-mail data to USPS. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price fluctuates based on supply and demand; more buyers drive the price up, indicating increased confidence, while more sellers push it down. This dynamic pricing reflects the collective wisdom of the crowd.

Question 4

When does this market resolve, and what determines the outcome?

Accepted Answer

This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on whether any state officially submits ballot-mail data to the USPS before the resolution date. The outcome will be determined by publicly available information from official state election websites and reports from recognized news organizations. The focus is on official submission, not preliminary discussions or intentions, and will be verified against credible public sources to ensure accuracy.

Question 5

What signals or events could move this market between now and resolution?

Accepted Answer

Several signals could significantly impact this market. Official announcements from state election officials regarding ballot-mail data submissions would be a primary driver. Legal challenges related to ballot-mail procedures or data sharing agreements could also cause movement. Unexpected changes in state election laws, or even statements from key political figures about their stance on ballot-mail data, could influence trader sentiment. Finally, any news regarding the USPS's capacity or willingness to receive and process such data could also shift the odds in this market.

Will any state submit ballot-mail data to USPS?