TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 9, 11:03 PM EST
Opinion
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official "Close" price for Amazon (AMZN) on the trading day specified in the title is strictly higher than the price specified in the title. A "Close" exactly equal to the specified price resolves to "No". If the market is not open on the specified day (exchange holiday or unscheduled closure), or Amazon (AMZN) does not trade at all during that day's regular session, this market resolves 50-50 — each side is paid at half value; this is not a refund. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting Amazon (AMZN), this market resolves on split-adjusted prices, and the price specified in the title is adjusted proportionally. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Amazon (AMZN) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/ under "Historical Prices". If that data is unavailable due to an outage or other technical disruption, the official price published by the primary exchange on which Amazon (AMZN) trades governs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official "Close" price for Amazon (AMZN) on the trading day specified in the title is strictly higher than the price specified in the title. A "Close" exactly equal to the specified price resolves to "No". If the market is not open on the specified day (exchange holiday or unscheduled closure), or Amazon (AMZN) does not trade at all during that day's regular session, this market resolves 50-50 — each side is paid at half value; this is not a refund. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting Amazon (AMZN), this market resolves on split-adjusted prices, and the price specified in the title is adjusted proportionally. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Amazon (AMZN) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/ under "Historical Prices". If that data is unavailable due to an outage or other technical disruption, the official price published by the primary exchange on which Amazon (AMZN) trades governs.
Currently, the prevailing sentiment in this market suggests a different outlook than some traditional analyst forecasts for Amazon. While many analysts maintain a positive long-term view of the company, the prediction market reflects a more nuanced perspective on short-term price movements. This difference can stem from the prediction market’s ability to incorporate a wider range of information and real-time data, as well as the incentive structure for participants to accurately forecast the outcome. It’s important to remember that both prediction markets and analyst forecasts are tools for assessing future events, each with their own strengths and weaknesses.
This market resolves around Oct 9, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the closing price of Amazon (AMZN) stock on the final trading day of the week of October 5 will be compared against the market’s target price. The resolution will be based on publicly available financial data from a recognized source, ensuring transparency and accuracy. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their predictions aligned with the actual stock performance during that period.
Several factors could significantly influence this market before it resolves. Major news events related to Amazon, such as earnings reports, product launches, or significant changes in company leadership, could all cause price fluctuations. Broader economic indicators, like inflation data or interest rate decisions, could also impact investor sentiment towards Amazon and, consequently, the market. Unexpected developments in the technology sector or shifts in consumer spending patterns are additional catalysts to watch. Any substantial news impacting the overall stock market could also move this market.