TOTAL VOLUME:
$143b
24H VOL:
$111,424,783
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,661,467,257
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,630,632,565
494,234
Markets across
37,330
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,871
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
$
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday) is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No". Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) does not trade at all during the regular session of the final trading day of the week, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used. If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.AMZN%2FUSD.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday) is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No". Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) does not trade at all during the regular session of the final trading day of the week, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used. If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.AMZN%2FUSD.
Currently, prediction market odds reflect a collective forecast about Amazon’s stock performance. These odds often differ from traditional analyst forecasts, as they represent a wider range of perspectives and incorporate real-time information. While analysts may provide price targets based on fundamental analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, potentially identifying factors not fully captured in conventional models. It’s interesting to consider how this market’s predictions align with, or diverge from, the consensus estimates for Amazon’s stock price.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether Amazon will finish the week of October 12 above the specified price. The price of these shares directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price adjusts, providing a dynamic assessment of the market’s expectations. The current price indicates what traders are collectively willing to pay for exposure to this outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the closing price of Amazon (AMZN) stock on the Friday of that week will be compared to the market’s target price. If the closing price is above that level, the market will resolve in favor of the ‘yes’ outcome; otherwise, it will resolve to ‘no’. The resolution will be based on a widely recognized financial data source, ensuring an objective and transparent outcome.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or GDP figures, could impact overall market sentiment and affect Amazon’s stock price. Company-specific news, including earnings announcements, product launches, or changes in leadership, would also be key catalysts. Unexpected geopolitical events or shifts in consumer spending patterns could also play a role. Any news that alters investor perceptions of Amazon’s future growth prospects has the potential to move this market substantially before Oct 16, 2026.