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Will Allstate (ALL) beat quarterly earnings?
- Polymarket
Will Allstate (ALL) beat quarterly earnings? - Polymarket
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Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 4, 2026
Time left: 01d:16h:05m
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As of market creation, Allstate is estimated to release earnings on November 4, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Allstate’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $6.97 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Allstate reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $6.97 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Allstate releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.) If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for non-GAAP EPS as of market creation. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
As of market creation, Allstate is estimated to release earnings on November 4, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Allstate’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $6.97 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Allstate reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $6.97 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Allstate releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.) If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for non-GAAP EPS as of market creation. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Currently, the prediction market offers a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts for Allstate’s earnings. While analysts typically provide point estimates or ranges, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, expressing the probability of Allstate exceeding expectations. Discrepancies between the market’s implied probability and analyst consensus could signal areas where the market perceives information differently, or where analysts may be overly optimistic or pessimistic about the company’s performance. This market represents a forward-looking assessment based on available information.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether Allstate will beat quarterly earnings. The price of these shares directly reflects the probability of that outcome, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price adjusts dynamically based on supply and demand, meaning that as more people believe Allstate will beat earnings, the price of the 'yes' shares will increase, and vice versa. This creates a real-time probability assessment.
This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on whether Allstate’s reported quarterly earnings per share (EPS) exceed the consensus EPS estimate of financial analysts as of the earnings announcement date. The final price of shares in this market will reflect the actual outcome – either Allstate beat earnings, or it did not – and traders will be paid out accordingly based on their positions.
Several factors could significantly influence this market leading up to the resolution date. Any news related to Allstate’s financial health, such as pre-earnings announcements, changes in insurance claim volumes, or updates on investment performance, could cause the market to shift. Broader economic indicators, like inflation rates or interest rate changes, could also impact investor sentiment and move the market. Finally, analyst revisions to their earnings estimates for Allstate will likely be reflected in trading activity within this market.