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Will Airbnb (ABNB) beat quarterly earnings?
polymarket

Will Airbnb (ABNB) beat quarterly earnings?

Oct 26, 2026, 8:03 PM EST - Nov 5, 2026, 5:00 PM EST
Total volume:
$283
Volume 24h:
$5N/A
Liquidity:
$163
17%
Open interest:
$87N/A

Will Airbnb (ABNB) beat quarterly earnings?

 - Polymarket

Will Airbnb (ABNB) beat quarterly earnings? - Polymarket

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 5, 2026

Time left: 02d:22h:48m

Will Airbnb (ABNB) beat quarterly earnings?

38%chance
Amount

$

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At 50¢ buys you 200 shares | Odds: 38% Total Payout: $200 | Net Profit: $100 Multiplier: 2.00x | ROI: 100% APY not meaningful Low liquidity 2 days to resolution
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polymarket

Will Airbnb (ABNB) beat quarterly earnings?

Trade
38%
41%
Yes 50¢No 74¢
24¢
$163
$283
2%
N/A
N/A
2d 22h 48m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

As of market creation, Airbnb is estimated to release earnings on November 5, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Airbnb's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $2.91 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Airbnb reports GAAP EPS greater than $2.91 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Airbnb releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”. If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for GAAP EPS as of market creation. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.

Polymarket

As of market creation, Airbnb is estimated to release earnings on November 5, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Airbnb's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $2.91 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Airbnb reports GAAP EPS greater than $2.91 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Airbnb releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”. If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for GAAP EPS as of market creation. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Airbnb earnings market tracks the current odds of Airbnb beating quarterly earnings expectations, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have changed over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume displayed, indicating how much activity there has been in this market recently. Currently, the top outcome – Airbnb beating earnings – has a chance percentage of 38.0%. The total volume traded in this market is $283, and the 24-hour volume is $5.

Currently, prediction market traders are indicating a 38.0% probability that Airbnb will beat quarterly earnings. This contrasts with traditional analyst forecasts, which may offer different perspectives based on financial modeling and company reports. It’s interesting to note how the collective wisdom of the crowd, as expressed in this market, aligns with or diverges from expert opinions regarding Airbnb’s performance. Discrepancies can arise from differing interpretations of data or the inclusion of information not readily available to analysts.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether Airbnb will beat quarterly earnings. The price of these shares directly reflects the implied probability of the outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price adjusts to reflect the evolving consensus. The market's depth and volume indicate the level of confidence traders have in their predictions, and the current price represents the market's best estimate of the outcome.

This market resolves around Nov 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on whether Airbnb’s reported earnings per share (EPS) exceed the consensus estimate of financial analysts covering the company. The official earnings report released by Airbnb will serve as the definitive source for determining whether the market resolves in favor of Airbnb beating earnings or not. Traders should monitor financial news sources for the official announcement.

Several factors could significantly influence the price of this market before it resolves. Any news related to Airbnb's bookings, revenue projections, or overall financial health would likely cause movement. Broader economic indicators, such as travel trends and consumer spending data, could also play a role. Furthermore, announcements from competitors or changes in the regulatory environment impacting the travel industry could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected events, like a major disruption to Airbnb’s platform or a significant shift in investor confidence, could also cause substantial price fluctuations in this market.