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Will Aflac (AFL) beat quarterly earnings?
polymarket

Will Aflac (AFL) beat quarterly earnings?

Oct 26, 2026, 8:00 PM EST - Nov 4, 2026, 5:00 PM EST
Total volume:
$355
Volume 24h:
$14N/A
Liquidity:
$423
33%
Open interest:
$217N/A

Will Aflac (AFL) beat quarterly earnings?

 - Polymarket

Will Aflac (AFL) beat quarterly earnings? - Polymarket

1W

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Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 4, 2026

Time left: 02d:00h:18m

Will Aflac (AFL) beat quarterly earnings?

68%chance
Amount

$

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At 70¢ buys you 143 shares | Odds: 68% Total Payout: $143 | Net Profit: $43 Multiplier: 1.43x | ROI: 43% APY not meaningful Low liquidity 2 days to resolution
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polymarket

Will Aflac (AFL) beat quarterly earnings?

Trade
68%
Yes 70¢No 35¢
5¢
$423
$355
4%
N/A
N/A
2d 18m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

As of market creation, Aflac is estimated to release earnings on November 4, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Aflac’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $1.81 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Aflac reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $1.81 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Aflac releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.) If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for non-GAAP EPS as of market creation. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.

Polymarket

As of market creation, Aflac is estimated to release earnings on November 4, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Aflac’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $1.81 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Aflac reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $1.81 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Aflac releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.) If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for non-GAAP EPS as of market creation. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Aflac earnings market tracks the current odds of Aflac beating quarterly earnings expectations, as expressed by traders. You'll find a price history showing how the probability has shifted over time, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $14. The total volume traded in this market is $355. This information provides a real-time view of market sentiment regarding Aflac's financial performance. The dashboard is updated continuously to reflect the latest trading activity.

Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for Aflac's earnings. While analysts typically provide point estimates or ranges, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, expressing expectations as a probability. If analysts are largely optimistic, we might see a higher implied probability in this market. Conversely, if analysts are skeptical, the probability may be lower. It's important to note that prediction markets can incorporate information more quickly than traditional forecasts, potentially reacting faster to new developments and insider knowledge.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether Aflac will beat quarterly earnings. The price of these shares directly reflects the probability of that outcome, as determined by supply and demand. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy shares, the price increases, indicating a growing belief that Aflac will exceed expectations. Conversely, increased selling pressure lowers the price, suggesting a declining belief. This dynamic pricing ensures the market reflects the collective intelligence of participants.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on whether Aflac's reported quarterly earnings per share (EPS) exceed the consensus estimate of financial analysts covering the company. The official earnings release from Aflac will serve as the primary source of information for determining the outcome. The market will then settle based on this comparison, reflecting the collective prediction of traders.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Nov 4, 2026. Any news related to Aflac's financial health, such as pre-earnings announcements, changes in analyst ratings, or broader economic indicators impacting the insurance industry, could influence trading activity. Unexpected macroeconomic data releases, like inflation reports or interest rate decisions, could also play a role. Finally, significant news regarding Aflac's competitors or the overall market sentiment could shift the probability of Aflac beating earnings expectations, leading to price fluctuations in this market.