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Closed: Nov 1, 1:20 AM EST
Polymarket
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by October 31?
Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement. For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country. Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement. For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country. Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently asked questions
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy 'yes' shares if they believe a new country will join the Accords, and sell 'no' shares if they disagree. The price of these shares directly reflects the market's implied probability. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price fluctuates based on supply and demand, driven by new information and shifts in trader sentiment. A higher price for 'yes' shares indicates increasing confidence in the outcome, while a lower price suggests decreasing confidence.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, resolution will depend on whether a sovereign state formally joins the Abraham Accords – that is, signs a normalization agreement with Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and/or Sudan – before the resolution date. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements from the involved governments and widely reported by reputable news organizations.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Diplomatic breakthroughs or negotiations between Israel and countries not currently party to the Abraham Accords, such as Saudi Arabia or Oman, would likely cause a substantial price increase. Conversely, heightened regional tensions or setbacks in existing normalization efforts could drive the price down. Major political changes within potential candidate countries, such as a shift in government policy, would also be a key signal. Unexpected geopolitical events, like a significant conflict, could also heavily influence trading activity in this market.
