TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 31, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event refers to the possibility of a member of Congress stepping down or being removed from their position during October 2026. It centers on the political stability and dynamics within the legislative body during that specific month. The occurrence of such a resignation or expulsion would mark a significant development in the congressional session.
Kalshi
If any member of Congress resigns or is expelled as any member of Congress in Oct 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional polling data. While polls attempt to capture current sentiment, this market reflects what traders believe will *actually* happen, incorporating a wider range of information and potential catalysts. It’s not uncommon to see discrepancies, as polls can be influenced by social desirability bias or short-term events, whereas this market aggregates informed speculation. It’s important to remember that prediction markets are forward-looking, attempting to forecast an outcome, while polls are snapshots of current opinion.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing the probability of a member of Congress resigning or being expelled. The price of a contract ranges from 0 to 100, representing the implied probability of the event occurring. As more traders buy contracts, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust expectations accordingly, creating a real-time forecast of the event's likelihood.
This market resolves around Nov 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on whether any member of the United States Congress—including both the House of Representatives and the Senate—resigns from office or is formally expelled during the month of October 2026. Any resignation or expulsion that occurs before or after this timeframe will not affect the outcome of this market. The focus is strictly on events happening within that specific month.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Major political scandals involving members of Congress, unexpected health issues forcing a resignation, or shifts in the political landscape leading to increased calls for expulsion are all potential catalysts. High-profile investigations, particularly those involving ethical violations or legal challenges, could also drive movement. Furthermore, significant changes in party leadership or internal conflicts within Congress could influence traders' perceptions and subsequently, the price of contracts in this market.
