TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 9, 5:53 PM EST
Polymarket
Intro
This market tracks the selection of the next White House Press Secretary, following Karoline Leavitt’s departure. Currently, Polymarket and Predict traders assign a 100.0% probability to Will Candidate D being named to the position. This aggregated view incorporates data from both platforms and will resolve based on official information from the White House and Donald Trump, with a consensus of credible reporting as a secondary source. Keep an eye on January 1, 2027, as this is the date by which a permanent replacement must be announced to resolve the market.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both Polymarket and Predict utilize identical resolution criteria, focusing on the official announcement of a permanent Press Secretary replacement.Primary resolution logic: Official information from the White House and Donald Trump, with a consensus of credible reporting as a secondary source.Core resolution logic:
- Resolution is triggered by the official announcement of a permanent White House Press Secretary.
- Interim or acting appointments do not qualify for resolution.
- If no permanent replacement is announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to 'Other'.
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Withdrawal of Nominee: If an individual is announced but subsequently withdraws their acceptance before officially assuming the role, the market will still resolve on the initial announcement, as stated in the market descriptions.
- Role Abolishment: If the White House Press Secretary role is abolished before a replacement is named, the market will resolve to 'Other'.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the next individual who the White House announces has been picked to be the White House Press Secretary who replaces Karoline Leavitt by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A person being announced as an acting or interim holder of the position will not count for purposes of this market. In the event that no individual is chosen to replace Karoline Leavitt, or the role is abolished, by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Once a qualifying announcement has occurred, subsequent withdrawals or replacement announcements will not affect resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the White House and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Predict
This market will resolve according to the next individual who the White House announces has been picked to be the White House Press Secretary who replaces Karoline Leavitt by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A person being announced as an acting or interim holder of the position will not count for purposes of this market. In the event that no individual is chosen to replace Karoline Leavitt, or the role is abolished, by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Once a qualifying announcement has occurred, subsequent withdrawals or replacement announcements will not affect resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the White House and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional polling averages. Polls capture stated preferences, while this market reflects what individuals are willing to put their money on. This can be particularly valuable in situations where respondents may be hesitant to express their true opinions or where strategic voting is a factor. The difference in probabilities between this market and polls can sometimes be significant, particularly as new information emerges and traders adjust their positions. This market provides a real-time assessment of perceived likelihood, constantly updated by informed participants.
Several signals and events could significantly impact this market. Any public statements from former President Trump regarding potential candidates would likely cause a shift in probabilities. News reports detailing vetting processes or internal discussions within the Trump team could also move the market. Unexpected resignations or departures of current White House staff could create new opportunities and alter the landscape. Finally, any major political events or controversies could influence the perceived priorities and considerations in the selection process, impacting trading activity in this market.
