TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$244,077,041
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,985,204,718
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,901,278,909
407,043
Markets across
39,548
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,422
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 1:44 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks predictions about who will be appointed to a key advisory role focusing on artificial intelligence within a specific timeframe. The outcome depends on official announcements regarding the selection process. It reflects public and political interest in who might shape national policy in this rapidly evolving field.
Kalshi
The event resolves based on the first official announcement by President Trump naming an AI czar after the market issuance and before January 1, 2027. Such announcements may be made through any official channel, including posts on Truth Social, and do not require Senate confirmation or assumption of duties to qualify. If multiple individuals are named jointly in the first qualifying announcement, the payout is divided equally among all listed contestants who appear in that announcement. Should the announcement name no listed individuals, or if no qualifying announcement occurs by the deadline, all markets resolve as No.
Frequently asked questions
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief in each outcome. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. As more people buy contracts for a particular candidate, the price goes up, and the implied probability increases. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s depth, or the volume of contracts available at different price points, indicates how easily large trades can be executed without significantly impacting the price.
This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the market will settle based on the individual publicly named by Donald Trump to serve as his primary advisor on Artificial Intelligence policy, often referred to as an “AI czar.” Any official announcement made through a recognized press release or official statement will be considered for resolution. The outcome will be verified against credible public sources to ensure accuracy and transparency.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Any public statements made by Donald Trump regarding his views on AI or potential candidates would likely cause price fluctuations. Official endorsements or rejections of potential nominees would be a major catalyst. Furthermore, news regarding the qualifications or past work of individuals rumored to be under consideration could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected developments in the field of AI itself, or changes in the political landscape, could also influence the probabilities reflected in this market.
