TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 3, 8:32 PM EST
Polymarket
Intro
This market tracks the likelihood of Donald Trump meeting with specific individuals during September 2026. Currently, the consensus probability of Donald Trump meeting with Sam Altman in September is 8.0%, while the probability of a meeting with Vladimir Putin is 0.1%. This aggregated view combines data from Polymarket and Kalshi, and will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. The resolution source defines a meeting as any in-person interaction between Trump and the listed individual, and will be determined by October 1, 2026, marking the end of the betting period for this market.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Kalshi markets include a period before September 1st, while Polymarket markets are strictly limited to September 1-30, 2026.Hero tip: Consider the timeframe difference when evaluating markets on Kalshi versus Polymarket. Kalshi markets have a wider window for resolution, potentially increasing the probability of a 'Yes' outcome.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Markets resolve 'Yes' if a meeting occurs between September 1 and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A meeting is defined as any in-person interaction.
- Kalshi: Markets resolve 'Yes' if a meeting occurs after issuance and before October 1, 2026. A meeting is defined as any in-person interaction.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual meets with Donald Trump between September 1 and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A meeting is defined as any encounter where both the listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Kalshi
The event evaluates whether Donald Trump meets specified AI CEOs in person between the issuance of the market and October 1, 2026. A qualifying meeting requires both individuals to be physically present and engage in direct communication or interaction, excluding mere proximity without purposeful engagement. The meeting must be documented by at least one credible source, such as an official statement, press release, or reputable media report. Meetings spanning the period boundary are valid if any part occurs within the timeframe. Communication through intermediaries, written correspondence, or social media does not satisfy the criteria. Each market resolves to Yes only if the specified CEO and Trump meet under these conditions.
Frequently asked questions
Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to several factors. Each platform has its own user base, trading dynamics, and liquidity levels. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Different risk appetites and information access among traders on each venue can also contribute to price discrepancies. For example, one platform might attract more sophisticated traders with access to exclusive information, while the other may have a broader, more general audience. These differences in market composition and trading behavior can lead to varying probabilities for the same outcomes within this market, even though they represent the same underlying event.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Official announcements regarding Trump’s schedule, confirmed meeting invitations, or statements from potential attendees would likely cause price shifts. Unexpected political developments, such as major policy changes or international events, could also influence the perceived likelihood of meetings. Furthermore, media coverage and public speculation surrounding potential meetings could drive trading activity and alter the probabilities reflected in this market. Any credible information suggesting a meeting is more or less likely to occur will be quickly incorporated into the prices on both Polymarket and Kalshi.