TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 8, 4:07 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual meets with Donald Trump between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A meeting is defined as any encounter where both the listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual meets with Donald Trump between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A meeting is defined as any encounter where both the listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to polling averages for this type of event is challenging, as polls typically focus on broader public opinion or specific policy preferences, while this market directly assesses the likelihood of a discrete event—a meeting between Donald Trump and another individual. Polls may not directly address who Trump will meet with, making a one-to-one comparison difficult. However, if polls indicate heightened political activity or increased engagement with certain figures, it could indirectly influence trading activity in this market. It's important to note that prediction markets often incorporate information not captured in traditional polls.
On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, the price of each outcome in this market is determined by supply and demand. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief in whether a specific individual will meet with Donald Trump. As more traders buy a contract, the price increases, indicating a higher perceived probability. Conversely, increased selling pressure lowers the price. This dynamic pricing mechanism reflects the collective wisdom of the crowd and adjusts rapidly to new information. The market's efficiency depends on active participation and informed trading.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on documented meetings between Donald Trump and other individuals that occur before the specified date. Any meetings scheduled for after Nov 1, 2026 will not be considered for resolution. Traders should monitor news sources and official announcements to stay informed about potential meetings that could impact this market.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Official announcements regarding Trump's travel schedule or planned meetings would be a primary driver. Unexpected political developments, such as major policy shifts or shifts in Trump’s public statements, could also influence trading activity. News reports detailing potential meetings, even if unconfirmed, could create volatility. Finally, any significant endorsements or public interactions between Trump and potential meeting partners could also impact the odds. Traders should closely follow these developments to assess the changing probabilities in this market.
