TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 8, 10:23 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vladimir Putin holds a bilateral meeting with the listed individual in Turkmenistan between market creation and October 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Vladimir Putin is scheduled to visit Turkmenistan on October 8–9, 2026, including for the meeting of the CIS Council of Heads of State in Avaza on October 9. A bilateral meeting is a meeting between Putin and the listed individual, with or without their delegations, held separately from the summit's plenary, narrow-format, or expanded-format sessions and from other group events. Meetings described by official sources or credible reporting as bilateral talks, a one-on-one or tête-à-tête meeting, or a meeting on the sidelines of the summit will qualify. Brief exchanges, handshakes, informal conversations during or between group sessions, joint appearances at ceremonies, receptions, dinners, or other group events, and trilateral or multilateral meetings will not qualify. Phone or video calls will not qualify. The resolution source will be official information from the Kremlin and the governments of the listed individuals; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vladimir Putin holds a bilateral meeting with the listed individual in Turkmenistan between market creation and October 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Vladimir Putin is scheduled to visit Turkmenistan on October 8–9, 2026, including for the meeting of the CIS Council of Heads of State in Avaza on October 9. A bilateral meeting is a meeting between Putin and the listed individual, with or without their delegations, held separately from the summit's plenary, narrow-format, or expanded-format sessions and from other group events. Meetings described by official sources or credible reporting as bilateral talks, a one-on-one or tête-à-tête meeting, or a meeting on the sidelines of the summit will qualify. Brief exchanges, handshakes, informal conversations during or between group sessions, joint appearances at ceremonies, receptions, dinners, or other group events, and trilateral or multilateral meetings will not qualify. Phone or video calls will not qualify. The resolution source will be official information from the Kremlin and the governments of the listed individuals; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different assessment than most publicly available polling data regarding the likelihood of specific individuals meeting bilaterally with Putin. While polls often capture stated preferences or general sentiment, this market represents what individuals are willing to put capital behind. This difference stems from the incentive structure; prediction market traders are financially motivated to accurately forecast the outcome, leading to a potentially more refined signal than traditional surveys. The implied probabilities in this market offer a distinct perspective on the event's potential outcomes.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on whether a bilateral meeting between Vladimir Putin and another head of state or government demonstrably occurs in Turkmenistan. Any meeting announced or confirmed after the resolution date will not be considered. The outcome will be determined by assessing official statements, news reports from reputable sources, and any other publicly available evidence confirming the meeting took place.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Official announcements regarding Putin's travel schedule, diplomatic visits to Turkmenistan, or statements from involved parties would be key catalysts. Geopolitical developments, such as shifts in international relations or regional conflicts, could also influence the likelihood of specific meetings. Unexpected political events within Turkmenistan or the countries of potential counterparts could also move the market. Any credible news suggesting a meeting is planned or canceled will likely lead to substantial shifts in trading activity and price adjustments in this market.
