TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 12:28 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve according to the first individual Donald Trump announces as his pick to be AI czar. An announcement from Donald Trump or the Trump administration stating their intent to appoint a specific individual as AI czar will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal appointment actually occurs. Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the AI czar or future AI czar. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates, will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify. An announcement will qualify regardless of the name used to refer to AI, including "super intelligence" (SI). However, the person must be announced as the "czar" or a derivative thereof. If Donald Trump does not announce his pick for AI czar by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Czar by December 31”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump and the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the first individual Donald Trump announces as his pick to be AI czar. An announcement from Donald Trump or the Trump administration stating their intent to appoint a specific individual as AI czar will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal appointment actually occurs. Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the AI czar or future AI czar. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates, will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify. An announcement will qualify regardless of the name used to refer to AI, including "super intelligence" (SI). However, the person must be announced as the "czar" or a derivative thereof. If Donald Trump does not announce his pick for AI czar by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Czar by December 31”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump and the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls capture stated preferences, this market aggregates informed speculation about who Donald Trump will actually choose for this role. Discrepancies can arise due to factors like strategic voting, insider information, or a more nuanced understanding of the selection process. It's important to remember that polls measure what people *say* they believe, while this market reflects what people are *willing to bet* will happen, offering a potentially more accurate signal.
This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the market will resolve based on the individual publicly identified by Donald Trump as his primary advisor or lead official responsible for artificial intelligence policy. Any official title used by Trump will be considered, and the resolution will be verified against credible public sources. The market will determine which candidate best fits this description.
Several signals could significantly shift the odds in this market. Any public statements from Donald Trump regarding his views on AI or potential advisors would be a major catalyst. News reports detailing potential candidates being vetted or interviewed could also cause substantial movement. Furthermore, major developments in the field of AI, such as new regulations or breakthroughs, might influence Trump's priorities and therefore the perceived likelihood of different individuals being chosen. Unexpected political events or shifts in Trump’s campaign strategy could also play a role.
