TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 30, 9:59 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks political fundraising performance on a specific platform for a set date. It focuses on determining which named individual achieves a particular ranking among all fundraisers during that period. The outcome depends entirely on public data displayed by the fundraising platform at a specified time.
Kalshi
All markets resolve based on ActBlue's official "Top fundraisers from this week" list captured at exactly 10:00 AM ET on October 30, 2026. Rankings are determined strictly by the left-to-right order of names shown on the directory page, with the leftmost name considered the top fundraiser. Each market corresponds to a specific named candidate, and that market resolves to Yes only if that candidate appears in the fourth position on the list at the exact specified time. If the fourth-highest fundraiser on the list is not one of the named candidates, all markets resolve to No. The ranking snapshot must be taken precisely at the designated timestamp, and Kalshi explicitly disclaims any official connection to ActBlue.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional polling data, as polls focusing on fundraising projections this far in advance are rare. However, prediction markets often incorporate information that polls miss, such as fundraising momentum, donor networks, and strategic campaign decisions. If polling data emerges suggesting a candidate is unlikely to reach a certain fundraising threshold, we might see the odds for that candidate decrease in this market. Conversely, strong polling numbers could drive up a candidate’s odds.
This market resolves around Jan 28, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the fourth-highest individual ActBlue fundraiser will be identified based on the official fundraising totals reported by ActBlue for the period leading up to October 30, 2026. The market will settle to 100 for the candidate who meets this criterion, and 0 for all others. The final totals will be publicly available and independently verifiable.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Major campaign announcements, shifts in political endorsements, and unexpected fundraising successes or failures by key candidates would all likely cause price movements. Changes in the overall political landscape, such as a surprise primary challenge or a major national event, could also influence trading activity. Furthermore, any news regarding ActBlue itself, such as changes to its platform or policies, could impact the fundraising dynamics and, consequently, the odds in this market.
