TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 30, 9:59 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks political fundraising performance, focusing on identifying which candidate achieves a specific ranking on a popular crowdfunding platform during a set timeframe. The outcome depends on public donor support measured by the platform's published leaderboards.
Kalshi
All markets resolve based on ActBlue's official "Top fundraisers from this week" directory listing at 10:00 AM ET on October 30, 2026. Candidates are ranked sequentially from leftmost (highest) to rightmost (lowest) position on the page. Any market corresponding to the individual occupying the fifth position resolves to Yes; all others resolve to No. If none of the listed candidates appears in the fifth position, every market resolves to No. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with ActBlue, and all related trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional polling averages, as fundraising totals are not typically the focus of public opinion surveys. However, strong fundraising is often seen as an indicator of campaign strength and voter enthusiasm, which are factors that polls attempt to measure. Discrepancies between this market and polling data could reflect differing beliefs about the predictive power of money in politics, or the ability of campaigns to efficiently utilize raised funds. It’s important to remember that this market represents a forecast of fundraising success, not necessarily electoral outcomes.
This market resolves around Jan 28, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the official fundraising totals reported by ActBlue for all campaigns as of October 30, 2026. The candidate or committee with the fifth-highest total will be declared the winner of this market. The official ActBlue data will serve as the definitive record for determining the outcome of this market, ensuring a transparent and verifiable resolution process.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Major endorsements of candidates, significant shifts in the political landscape, or unexpected fundraising events could all cause the odds to change. A candidate experiencing a surge in media attention or a particularly successful fundraising drive would likely see their contract prices increase. Conversely, negative news or a decline in fundraising momentum could lead to a decrease in their odds. Changes in campaign strategy, key staff departures, or major political debates could also influence traders' perceptions and move this market.
