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Who will be House Minority Leader in the 120th Congress?
Elections
kalshi

Who will be House Minority Leader in the 120th Congress?

Aug 23, 2026, 10:00 AM EST - Jan 8, 2027, 10:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$83,096
Volume 24h:
$16,086
25%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$47,812
25%

Jim Jordan

 - Kalshi

Jim Jordan - Kalshi

29%

+0%

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Aug 24

Aug 25

Aug 25

Aug 26

Aug 27

Aug 27

Aug 28

Vol.

$53.1

·

Resolves Jan 8, 2027

Will Jim Jordan win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress?

29%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 29¢ buys you 345 shares | Odds: 29% Total Payout: $345 | Net Profit: $245 Multiplier: 3.45x | ROI: 245% High Projected APY: 2,888% 133 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Total markets: 13

Description

The House Minority Leader is a key leadership position chosen by the party that does not hold the majority in the House of Representatives. This election determines who will lead the opposition party in Congress for the upcoming legislative session. The outcome reflects the internal dynamics and strategic priorities of the minority party as it organizes its caucus for upcoming debates and policy discussions.

Kalshi

The resolution of each market depends on whether a specific named candidate is elected House Minority Leader by the respective party caucus or conference that forms the minority in the 120th Congress. The election outcome is determined by the vote of the minority party members within the House, and the result is certified by that party body. Once certified, any subsequent changes to the leadership position do not alter the market outcome. If the minority party selects a leader not listed among the market candidates, all markets resolve as 'No'. Markets are eligible for accelerated resolution through a consensus of media outlets confirming the election result.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the House Minority Leader race tracks real-time odds and price movements for this prediction market. It shows the current top outcome, historical price trends, and 24-hour volume of $16,086. This gives you a live view of trader sentiment and market dynamics as the race develops, with all data reflecting activity solely on Kalshi.

This market resolves around Jan 8, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final result will reflect who officially assumes the role of House Minority Leader following the 120th Congress seating and party leadership elections.

Key events that could shift this market include major party caucus votes, public endorsements from influential representatives, intra-party challenges or scandals involving leading candidates, and developments around election results that affect the balance of power. Any unexpected changes in leadership contests or party strategy may cause rapid price adjustments as traders reassess probabilities.