TOTAL VOLUME:

$114.9b

24H VOL:

$111,074,919

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1,328,557,186

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,171,106,560

327,062

Markets across

32,198

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,044

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

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VS.

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58%

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Trump out as President by August 31?
Politics
polymarket
kalshi

Trump out as President by August 31?

Total volume:
$1,972,188
Volume 24h:
$48,833
59%
Liquidity:
$127,379
4%
Open interest:
$1,178
0%

Yes

 - Kalshi

Yes - Kalshi

4%

-2%

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

0%2%4%6%

Aug 15

Aug 16

Aug 18

Aug 19

Aug 20

Aug 21

Aug 22

Vol.

$53.0

·

Resolves Sep 8, 2026

Time left: 16d:23h:47m

Will any member of Congress be out as any member of Congress in Aug 2026?

1%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 4¢ buys you 2,500 shares | Odds: 1% Total Payout: $2,500 | Net Profit: $2,400 Multiplier: 25.00x | ROI: 2,400% APY not meaningful 16 days to resolution
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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result

Intro

This market tracks whether Donald Trump will cease to be the President of the United States by August 31, 2026. The aggregated consensus probability for Trump remaining as President is 99.0%, with Polymarket and Kalshi as the aggregated platforms. The resolution source is a consensus of credible reporting. Watch for developments around the market's end date on August 31, 2026, which will determine the final outcome.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Markets measure entirely different events: one tracks Trump’s presidential status, the other tracks congressional membership changes.Hero tip: Do not treat these markets as related. Polymarket resolves based on Trump’s permanent removal from the presidency; Kalshi resolves based on any congressional resignation or expulsion in August 2026. They are functionally independent bets.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to Yes if Trump permanently ceases to be President by August 31, 2026, via resignation, removal, or sustained Section 4 invocation of the 25th Amendment. Temporary removals or impeachment without removal do not count.
  • Kalshi: Resolves to Yes if any member of Congress resigns or is expelled during August 2026, irrespective of Trump’s presidential status or any other factors.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count. A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Kalshi

If any member of Congress resigns or is expelled as any member of Congress in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Trump presidency end market aggregates betting data from multiple venues, showing real-time probabilities and volume. It tracks how likely traders think it is that the presidency will end before the end of August. You can see consensus views across platforms, with current volume at $1,972,188 and 24-hour volume at $43,943. This gives a snapshot of collective wisdom on timing and likelihood.

Prediction market odds on this market often diverge from traditional polling averages because they incorporate betting behavior, sentiment, and financial incentives. While polls may show public opinion snapshots, market prices reflect what people are willing to pay to bet on outcomes. Currently, the implied probability from trading suggests a relatively high chance of an early end, which may or may not align with recent polling trends. Market prices can react faster to breaking news and shifting perceptions.

On Polymarket and Kalshi, prices can vary due to differences in user bases, liquidity, and market design. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. For example, one platform may attract more politically engaged traders, while another could have broader participation. This can create price gaps, especially when Polymarket currently favors Trump out as President by August 31? at 0.4%, while Kalshi leans toward Will any member of Congress be out as any member of Congress in Aug 2026? at 1.0%. The 0.6 point difference often reflects these varied dynamics.

This market resolves around Sep 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The settlement will depend on whether any confirmed events — such as resignation, removal, or other terminations — occur before the August 31 deadline. Once the facts are publicly established, the market will close and payouts will be processed based on the final, objective determination.

Several signals could shift probabilities before this market settles. Major news — including impeachment votes, health emergencies, or political scandals — might cause rapid price changes. Additionally, polling shifts, cabinet changes, or public pressure could influence trader sentiment. Economic developments or international incidents that affect political stability may also impact expectations. As we approach Sep 8, 2026, any credible indication of an early departure will likely cause significant movement.