TOTAL VOLUME:

$117.2b

24H VOL:

$119,620,865

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,380,975,298

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,195,396,953

341,524

Markets across

34,464

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,445

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

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Kash Patel out by...?
Politics
limitless
kalshi
polymarket

Kash Patel out by...?

Total volume:
$4,425,694
Volume 24h:
$2,961
50%
Liquidity:
$20,119
59%
Open interest:
$1,182,834
0.14%

December 31

all

3 markets

Polymarket

24%

Kalshi

21%

Limitless

N/A

consensus

22.5%

-1.5%

spread

21-24%

(3pp)

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Aug 21

Aug 22

Aug 23

Aug 24

Aug 26

Aug 27

Aug 28

Vol.

$12.4k

·

Resolves Jan 8, 2027

Kash Patel out by December 31?

24%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 24¢ buys you 417 shares | Odds: 24% Total Payout: $417 | Net Profit: $317 Multiplier: 4.17x | ROI: 317% High Projected APY: 6,143% 126 days to resolution
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 21¢ buys you 476 shares | Odds: 22% Total Payout: $476 | Net Profit: $376 Multiplier: 4.76x | ROI: 376% High Projected APY: 7,146% 133 days to resolution
limitless

Trade on Limitless

At 25.3¢ buys you 395 shares | Odds: 0% Total Payout: $395 | Net Profit: $295 Multiplier: 3.95x | ROI: 295% High Projected APY: 5,093% 126 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Total markets: 19

Description

This event group tracks whether Kash Patel will cease to be the Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation by various specified end dates across different prediction markets.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms resolve to Yes if Patel stops being FBI Director before the listed deadline, using official or credible reporting sourcesPrimary resolution logic: Official information from the Trump administration, with credible reporting consensus as backup

Core resolution logic:

  • Market resolves to Yes if Patel ceases to be FBI Director before the listed end date (11:59 PM ET)
  • Announcement before deadline triggers immediate Yes resolution regardless of effective date
  • No resolution occurs if Patel remains Director through the deadline

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Announcement vs Effective Date: An announcement before the deadline resolves to Yes even if the resignation/removal takes effect after the deadline
  • Temporary Absence: Any period where Patel ceases to be Director before the deadline resolves to Yes, even if he returns later
Timing: Resolution occurs immediately upon announcement before the deadline, or at 11:59 PM ET on the deadline date if no announcement occursOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Show more

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kash Patel ceases to be the Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation for any period of by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Patel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

This event establishes four sequential time windows (before May 1, June 1, July 1, and August 1, 2026) during which Kash Patel's actual departure from the FBI Director role would trigger a Yes resolution. Departure requires an actual departure date with the individual vacating the role, defined as any cessation of holding the position including voluntary resignation, involuntary removal, expulsion, or expiration of term without renewal. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute departure unless formally and permanently ceasing the position. If Patel vacates and then re-occupies the role, settlement occurs at the initial vacation. Death while in office may result in resolution at the last fair price at the Exchange's discretion. If the role ceases to exist with no plausible successor, the market may resolve to No.

Limitless

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kash Patel ceases to be the Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation for any period of by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Patel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Kash Patel departure market aggregates real-time data from multiple platforms, showing how traders price the likelihood of Kash Patel leaving his position. It displays combined volume of $2,987,571 and 24-hour volume of $3,563, alongside platform-specific probabilities. This unified view lets you monitor sentiment shifts and trading activity across venues as the event develops, providing a clear picture of market expectations for this political outcome.

Prediction market odds on this market reflect trader expectations rather than traditional polling averages. While polls sample public opinion through surveys, market prices incorporate real-money bets, news flow, and insider speculation — often leading to different implied probabilities. The current consensus from traders diverges from typical polling trends, highlighting the unique dynamics of this market.

On Polymarket and Kalshi, prices can vary due to differences in user base, liquidity, and market design. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. For instance, one platform may attract more retail traders reacting quickly to news, while the other could see slower, institutional-style trading. These factors explain why Polymarket and Kalshi currently show distinct probabilities for this market.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The binary result hinges on whether the specified political change occurs by the deadline, as reported through authoritative news sources and official announcements.

Several political and news-driven signals could shift this market before Jan 1, 2027. High-impact events such as official announcements from the administration, major media investigations, or significant policy disputes involving Kash Patel would likely cause rapid adjustments. Additionally, broader political developments, staffing changes, or public statements from key figures may influence trader sentiment. Volume spikes and probability shifts on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi often precede or follow these events, reflecting real-time market reactions to new information.