Who will attend the White House state dinner for Xi Jinping?

Currently, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than traditional polling averages regarding the attendees of the Xi Jinping state dinner. While polls often reflect stated preferences or general expectations, this market reflects what people are willing to put their money on. This can reveal a more nuanced understanding of the perceived likelihood of each individual's attendance, factoring in behind-the-scenes considerations that polls might miss. The difference between the two can highlight areas where expert opinion diverges from the wisdom of the crowd, offering a unique insight into the event’s potential guest list.

On Polymarket, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell shares representing their belief in an attendee’s presence at the Xi Jinping state dinner. The price of each share directly corresponds to the probability of that outcome. As more traders buy shares in a particular attendee, the price increases, reflecting growing confidence in their attendance. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Market participants adjust their positions based on new information, leading to dynamic price fluctuations that represent the collective forecast of the crowd. This creates a constantly updated assessment of the likely guest list.

This market resolves around Oct 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official guest list for the Xi Jinping state dinner is publicly released and verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on whether each individual listed in the market was officially recorded as attending the state dinner. Any disputes will be evaluated against publicly available records to ensure an accurate and transparent resolution process. The final outcome will reflect the actual attendees, as documented by reliable sources following the event.

Several signals could significantly move this market before Oct 8, 2026. Official announcements from the White House regarding guest list considerations, diplomatic developments between the US and China, and any publicly reported confirmations or denials of attendance by key individuals would all have a substantial impact. Unexpected political events or shifts in international relations could also influence trader sentiment. Furthermore, any leaks or credible reports regarding the guest list, even unofficial ones, could trigger rapid price adjustments in this market as traders react to new information.