TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 2, 12:13 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve according to the number of times White House (@WhiteHouse), posts on X between October 27, 12:00 PM ET and November 3, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of times White House (@WhiteHouse), posts on X between October 27, 12:00 PM ET and November 3, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional polling data regarding the anticipated activity of the White House on social media. Polling often captures stated intentions, while this market reflects what people are willing to put their money on. If polls consistently show expectations of a certain level of posting, but this market deviates significantly, it suggests traders believe other factors – such as unforeseen events or strategic communications decisions – will influence the final outcome. This difference can be a valuable signal for those following the event.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about the number of White House posts. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price fluctuates based on supply and demand, driven by new information and changing perspectives among traders. Higher demand for shares in a particular outcome will drive up its price, indicating increased confidence in that scenario.
This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the total number of posts made by the official White House social media accounts (as defined by Polymarket) between October 27 and November 3, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on a count of publicly available posts across all official White House social media channels during that timeframe. The market will then settle to reflect the accuracy of the winning prediction.
Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Major policy announcements, unexpected international crises, or significant shifts in the political landscape could all influence the White House’s social media strategy. Changes in the White House’s communications team or a deliberate effort to increase or decrease social media engagement would also be key catalysts. Furthermore, public reaction to ongoing events and the overall news cycle will likely play a role in shaping the market’s sentiment as we approach Nov 3, 2026.
