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Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win? (Build Your Map)
⌛Ending Soon
polymarket

Which Senate states will Republicans win?

Oct 26, 2026, 6:21 PM EST - Nov 3, 2026, 6:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$41,203,604
Volume 24h:
$18,941,928
130%
Liquidity:
$102,906,067
33%
Open interest:
$3,786,026N/A

None

 - Polymarket

None - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 3, 2026

Time left: 01d:01h:06m

Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?

34%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 34¢ buys you 294 shares | Odds: 34% Total Payout: $294 | Net Profit: $194 Multiplier: 2.94x | ROI: 194% APY not meaningful
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

None

Trade
34%
8%
Yes 34¢No 67¢
1¢
$2,052,205
$4,186,192
83%
N/A
N/A
1d 1h 6m
Active
polymarket

IA

Trade
11%
Yes 11.5¢No 88.6¢
0.1¢
$1,400,095
$1,781,760
76%
N/A
N/A
1d 1h 6m
Active
polymarket

IA, KS

Trade
7%
5%
Yes 7¢No 94¢
1¢
$1,513,765
$2,227,175
38%
N/A
N/A
1d 1h 6m
Active
polymarket

All 7

Trade
4%
Yes 4¢No 96.6¢
0.6¢
$1,463,125
$339,129
20%
N/A
N/A
1d 1h 6m
Active
polymarket

KS

Trade
4%
Yes 3.6¢No 96.6¢
0.2¢
$1,712,733
$282,705
103%
N/A
N/A
1d 1h 6m
Active
polymarket

AK, IA

Trade
2%
1%
Yes 2.6¢No 97.7¢
0.3¢
$120,231
$623,302
253%
N/A
N/A
1d 1h 6m
Active
polymarket

AK, IA, KS

Trade
2%
1%
Yes 2.6¢No 97.9¢
0.5¢
$153,651
$380,079
139%
N/A
N/A
1d 1h 6m
Active
polymarket

AK, IA, KS, ME, OH, TX

Trade
2%
1%
Yes 1.9¢No 98.2¢
0.1¢
$1,774,898
$337,045
154%
N/A
N/A
1d 1h 6m
Active
polymarket

AK

Trade
2%
Yes 2¢No 98.4¢
0.4¢
$1,132,934
$335,392
168%
N/A
N/A
1d 1h 6m
Active
polymarket

ME

Trade
2%
Yes 1.8¢No 98.5¢
0.3¢
$1,572,373
$357,008
79%
N/A
N/A
1d 1h 6m
Active
polymarket

IA, OH

Trade
1%
Yes 1.4¢No 98.7¢
0.1¢
$805,619
$404,942
31%
N/A
N/A
1d 1h 6m
Active
polymarket

IA, ME

Trade
1%
Yes 1.5¢No 98.9¢
0.4¢
$1,920,377
$366,169
137%
N/A
N/A
1d 1h 6m
Active
polymarket

OH

Trade
1%
Yes 1.2¢No 98.9¢
0.1¢
$1,784,313
$378,257
47%
N/A
N/A
1d 1h 6m
Active
polymarket

IA, KS, TX

Trade
1%
Yes 1.2¢No 99¢
0.2¢
$1,076,087
$243,247
95%
N/A
N/A
1d 1h 6m
Active
polymarket

TX

Trade
1%
Yes 1.1¢No 99¢
0.1¢
$1,223,522
$296,905
41%
N/A
N/A
1d 1h 6m
Active
polymarket

AK, IA, KS, ME, TX

Trade
1%
Yes 1.2¢No 99.2¢
0.4¢
$719,924
$227,653
54%
N/A
N/A
1d 1h 6m
Active
polymarket

IA, KS, ME

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 99.1¢
0.1¢
$742,279
$267,691
119%
N/A
N/A
1d 1h 6m
Active
polymarket

IA, TX

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 99.1¢
0.1¢
$92,119
$264,434
59%
N/A
N/A
1d 1h 6m
Active
polymarket

IA, KS, OH

Trade
1%
Yes 1.1¢No 99.3¢
0.4¢
$202,135
$212,937
94%
N/A
N/A
1d 1h 6m
Active
polymarket

AK, KS

Trade
1%
Yes 0.8¢No 99.3¢
0.1¢
$185,396
$278,256
87%
N/A
N/A
1d 1h 6m
Active
polymarket

AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, TX

Trade
1%
Yes 0.8¢No 99.3¢
0.1¢
$703,231
$239,913
68%
N/A
N/A
1d 1h 6m
Active
polymarket

AK, IA, KS, TX

Trade
1%
Yes 0.9¢No 99.4¢
0.3¢
$118,316
$230,383
92%
N/A
N/A
1d 1h 6m
Active
polymarket

AK, IA, KS, OH

Trade
1%
Yes 0.8¢No 99.3¢
0.1¢
$175,387
$217,155
95%
N/A
N/A
1d 1h 6m
Active
polymarket

IA, KS, OH, TX

Trade
1%
Yes 0.9¢No 99.4¢
0.3¢
$145,644
$186,825
85%
N/A
N/A
1d 1h 6m
Active
polymarket

IA, KS, ME, OH, TX

Trade
1%
Yes 0.8¢No 99.3¢
0.1¢
$148,316
$183,237
71%
N/A
N/A
1d 1h 6m
Active
Total markets: 25 of 128

Intro

This market tracks the outcome of which Senate seats in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas will be won by Republican candidates in the 2026 general elections. Currently, Polymarket gives a 24.5% probability to Republicans losing all seven of these Senate seats. The second most likely outcome, Republicans winning Iowa and Kansas while losing the other five states, is priced at 16.0%. Resolution will be determined by the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC, requiring consensus from all three sources to call the relevant elections. Keep a close watch on the election results as they come in on November 3, 2026, the date currently scheduled for these Senate general elections.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to which of the United States Senate general elections in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio (special election), and Texas, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, are won by the Republican candidate, inclusive of any potential runoffs. Each listed outcome names the exact set of these states in which the Republican candidate wins. An outcome will resolve to "Yes" only if the Republican candidate wins every state it names and does not win any of the other states covered by this market. A state counts as not won by the Republican candidate if any other candidate wins it, including a Democratic, independent, or third-party candidate, or if its results cannot be determined by March 31, 2027. A candidate will be considered to represent the Republican Party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of the Republican Party. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered to represent the Republican Party regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the Senate control market dashboard tracks the probabilities of Republicans winning specific tossup Senate states – Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas. You'll find the current odds reflecting trader sentiment, a price history chart showing how those odds have changed over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $17,956,158. The total volume traded on this market is $41,203,604, indicating the level of interest in predicting the outcome of these key Senate races. This dashboard provides a real-time view of where the smart money is going in the battle for the Senate.

Currently, prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls aim to capture a snapshot of voter intent at a specific moment, this market reflects continuously updated beliefs based on a wide range of information, including polls, news events, and expert analysis. Discrepancies can arise because prediction markets incentivize accurate forecasting, while polls can be subject to biases or methodological limitations. If polls show a close race in a state, this market may still lean towards one candidate if traders believe certain factors are not fully captured in the polling data.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous exchange where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the probability of Republicans winning these Senate seats. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy shares, the price increases, reflecting growing confidence in the outcome. Conversely, selling pressure drives the price down. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to aggregate information and provide a real-time assessment of the likelihood of various scenarios unfolding in these crucial Senate races.

This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the results of the Senate elections in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas are verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on which party controls the majority of seats in the Senate following the election. The market will determine which tossup states Republicans successfully win to achieve Senate control, and the outcome will be based on official election results as reported by reliable sources. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or fulfill their obligations based on the final outcome.

Several signals and events could significantly move this market before Nov 3, 2026. Major economic announcements, shifts in national political sentiment, and unexpected developments in individual Senate races could all influence trader behavior. For example, a strong fundraising report for a Republican candidate, a significant endorsement, or a damaging scandal involving a Democratic incumbent could lead to increased buying pressure on shares representing a Republican win. Conversely, a positive economic report or a favorable poll for a Democratic candidate could drive prices down. Any event that alters perceptions of the likely outcome has the potential to impact this market.