TOTAL VOLUME:
$115.4b
24H VOL:
$106,611,677
24H TRANSACTIONS:
1,328,568,758
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,186,434,592
311,814
Markets across
30,433
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
3,031
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
42%
VS.
Kalshi:
58%
$MarsCoin
- Predict
$MarsCoin - Predict
11%
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Aug 16
Aug 17
Aug 18
Aug 19
Aug 20
Aug 22
Aug 23
Vol.
$116.2k
·
Resolves Sep 30, 2026
$
This market tracks whether CZ's public wallet will purchase specific tokens before October 2026 on Predict, with resolution based on BNB Smart Chain data. The current probability that CZ will purchase $MarsCoin before October 2026 stands at 7.0%, while the probability for $币有 is also 7.0%. Watch for any qualifying purchases made by the specified wallet between August 5th and September 30, 2026, as this will determine the outcome.
Background CZ stated that he “might even buy (or sell) one or two in the next few weeks to test a few new things”: https://x.com/cz_binance/status/2082774355201675565 Each listed token is a separate binary outcome. Outcomes are independent, and any number may resolve to “Yes.” Relevant Wallet Only purchases completed by or specifically authorized by the following wallet on BNB Smart Chain will be considered: 0x28816c4c4792467390c90e5b426f198570e29307 Purchases involving any other recipient wallet will not qualify, even if that wallet is believed or confirmed to be controlled by CZ. Resolution Each outcome will resolve to “Yes” if, between August 5th, 2026 at 16:00:00 UTC and September 30, 2026 at 23:59:59 UTC, inclusive, the specified wallet completes a qualifying purchase of the relevant token on BNB Smart Chain. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” A purchase qualifies if a successful BNB Smart Chain transaction: - Is submitted by the specified wallet, or executes a purchase specifically authorized by a valid signature from that wallet that is publicly verifiable on-chain; - Results in a net increase in the wallet’s balance of the specified token; and - Results in the wallet giving up a positive amount of BNB or another token on BNB Smart Chain as payment, excluding gas fees. Any publicly verifiable on-chain purchase mechanism may qualify. Transactions may route through multiple pools or intermediate tokens. A reverted internal call will not disqualify a purchase if the overall transaction succeeds and the conditions above are met. An approval, permit, or signature alone does not qualify. There is no minimum purchase amount. A purchase will continue to qualify if the token is later sold, transferred, or burned. Exclusions - The following do not qualify: - Airdrops, gifts, unsolicited transfers, dusting, or spam tokens; - Claims, rewards, reflections, rebases, staking distributions, or liquidity-mining distributions; - Bridge transfers, centralized-exchange withdrawals, or wallet-to-wallet transfers; - Tokens received from removing liquidity or redeeming a staking, vault, or liquidity position; or - Failed transactions or transactions whose overall status is reverted. - Cross-chain swaps Token Identification Each outcome must identify the token by its exact BNB Smart Chain contract address: TOKEN SYMBOL — 0x[CONTRACT ADDRESS] Only the stated contract address will qualify. Tokens with the same name or symbol, including wrapped, bridged, staked, LP, migrated, or replacement versions, will not qualify unless listed as a separate outcome. Resolution Source Resolution will be based on publicly verifiable BNB Smart Chain data, including BscScan: https://bscscan.com/address/0x28816c4c4792467390c90e5b426f198570e29307 A “Yes” outcome may resolve once a qualifying purchase is confirmed on-chain. All remaining outcomes will resolve to “No” after the deadline.
On Predict, the odds in this market reflect trader sentiment rather than direct spot price forecasts. While spot prices show current exchange values, this market captures expectations about CZ’s future wallet activity. Traders may price in perceived likelihoods based on market trends, news, and historical behavior — factors not directly tied to immediate token valuations. The difference allows participants to speculate on event probability rather than short-term price swings. As Sep 30, 2026 approaches, shifts in trading volume and odds could diverge further from spot dynamics, depending on emerging signals about CZ’s potential moves.
On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Predict, this market is priced through a decentralized betting pool where participants buy and sell shares representing possible outcomes. The current probability reflects the ratio of shares sold for each outcome, adjusted by liquidity and trader activity. With a 24-hour volume of $11,068, price discovery evolves as new information emerges about CZ’s wallet activity. Traders can influence pricing by placing bets, with the top outcome currently at 11.0%. As we near Sep 30, 2026, expect sharper adjustments if credible signals appear.
This market resolves around Sep 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, blockchain analytics will confirm whether CZ’s public wallet has executed purchases of the listed tokens before the deadline. No subjective judgment is involved — the resolution relies on on-chain data and widely accepted verification standards.
Several signals could shift this market: CZ’s verified on-chain transactions, public announcements about token acquisitions, interviews or social media posts hinting at future buys, and broader market trends affecting his investment strategy. Additionally, developments surrounding specific tokens — such as partnerships, listings, or regulatory updates — may influence trader sentiment. Any concrete evidence linking CZ to a token purchase can cause rapid price adjustments.