TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 16, 3:39 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks whether a specific public figure will physically enter certain geographic regions during a defined timeframe. The outcome depends solely on verifiable, in-person presence within the specified areas, excluding any remote or indirect forms of engagement.
Kalshi
Each market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump physically enters the respective state's geographic boundaries between October 1, 2026, and November 1, 2026. A valid visit requires Trump to exit an aircraft, vehicle, vessel, or train within the state or otherwise physically enter the area while not aboard such transportation. Flying over without landing, remaining aboard during layovers or refueling stops, virtual or remote appearances, presence in international waters adjacent to the state, or presence solely within embassy or consulate grounds do not count. Additionally, plans or announcements of future visits that do not materialize during the specified period are irrelevant. The determination hinges strictly on documented, physical presence within the state's borders during the exact timeframe.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional analyst forecasts, as those forecasts don’t yet exist for events in October 2026. However, prediction markets often incorporate information that isn’t immediately reflected in polls or expert opinions. This market reflects the collective wisdom of traders, who are incentivized to accurately predict the outcome. As the event draws closer, it will be possible to assess how well this market’s predictions align with those of political analysts and commentators, offering a unique perspective on potential campaign strategies.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether a specific state will be visited by Donald Trump in October 2026. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that state being visited, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe a state will be visited, the higher the price of the corresponding contract. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly adjust to new information and changing expectations.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome determined by verifying which states Donald Trump actually visits during the month of October 2026. Visits will be confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting, such as news articles and official campaign schedules. The market will determine the states visited based on physical presence, meaning a brief stop or rally counts as a visit. The resolution will be based on publicly available information and will be finalized shortly after the conclusion of October 2026.
Several signals could significantly move this market. Any announcements regarding Donald Trump’s potential campaign strategy for the 2026 election cycle would be a major catalyst. Shifts in his public approval ratings, key endorsements, or changes in the political landscape of specific states could all influence trading activity. Major political events, such as midterm election results or significant legislative changes, could also impact the perceived likelihood of visits to certain states. Finally, any health-related news regarding Donald Trump could introduce volatility into this market.
