TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Time left: 05d:14h:37m
Will Democrats win white women in the exit poll?
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Description
This event group asks which political party will receive the largest share of the vote from white women in the 2026 US midterm elections. Resolution will be based on exit polling data, with CNN as the primary source, and CBS or ABC as backups if CNN data is unavailable. The group also includes markets for individual candidates.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Kalshi only focuses on the two major parties, while Polymarket includes markets for individual candidates and an 'Other' outcome, expanding the scope of possible resolutions.Hero tip: Focus on the Democratic/Republican markets on Kalshi if you want a simpler, more direct bet on the two-party outcome. Be aware that Polymarket's inclusion of candidates introduces additional complexity and potential for a less predictable resolution.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Resolves based on CNN exit polls, with CBS/ABC as backups. Includes markets for specific candidates and an 'Other' outcome. Tiebreaker is alphabetical order. Resolves by November 6, 2026, 12:00 PM ET, with a one-day grace period for CNN data.
- Kalshi: Resolves to 'Yes' if either the Democratic or Republican Party wins the white women vote in the 2026 midterm elections. No mention of specific candidates or an 'Other' outcome.
Polymarket
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the party that wins the greatest share of white women in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN. This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026. In the event of a tie for first place, this market will resolve based on the party, among those tied, whose name comes first alphabetically. In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below. In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC. If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Kalshi
Settlement uses national U.S. House exit poll data for white women from the 2026 midterms. The party with the higher share among this group wins; ties divide the settlement value. CNN is the primary source at Nov 6, 2026, 12:00 PM ET, with CBS and ABC as fallback sources if necessary.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls capture a snapshot of current sentiment, this market reflects what traders believe will *actually* happen, incorporating a wider range of information and potential biases. The spread between prediction market probabilities and polling data can sometimes be significant, particularly when markets anticipate events that polls might miss. This market, for example, provides a continuously updated assessment of the likely outcome, influenced by new data and evolving expectations, offering a unique signal compared to static poll results.
Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to several factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has a different user base, trading volume, and liquidity, which can influence price discovery. Additionally, the specific market structures and fee schedules on each platform may attract different types of traders. Currently, Polymarket currently favors Will Democrats win white women in the midterms? at 71.5%, while Kalshi leans toward Will Democrats win white women in the exit poll? at 76.0%. These differences highlight how varied perspectives can be reflected in prediction market pricing, even for the same underlying event.
This market resolves around Nov 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The winning party will be determined by the results of the midterm elections as reported by major news outlets and election authorities. This market aims to forecast which party receives the majority of votes from white women voters in the midterms, and the resolution will reflect the official election results. Traders can continue to adjust their positions until the outcome is clear and publicly available.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Major economic announcements, shifts in political endorsements, and unexpected developments in key races could all influence trader sentiment. Polling data releases, particularly those focusing on white women voters, will also be closely watched. Any significant news regarding candidate performance or campaign strategies could lead to price adjustments. Furthermore, broader political events, such as debates or major policy announcements, could also move this market as traders react to new information and reassess the probabilities of different outcomes.