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Republicans
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Republicans - Polymarket
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Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 6, 2026
Time left: 04d:06h:16m
Will Republicans win white voters in the midterms?
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Description
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the party that wins the greatest share of white voters in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN. This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026. In the event of a tie for first place, this market will resolve based on the party, among those tied, whose name comes first alphabetically. In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below. In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC. If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Polymarket
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the party that wins the greatest share of white voters in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN. This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026. In the event of a tie for first place, this market will resolve based on the party, among those tied, whose name comes first alphabetically. In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below. In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC. If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Frequently asked questions
On Polymarket, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in each outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s liquidity, indicated by the 24-hour volume, influences how easily traders can enter and exit positions, impacting price discovery. The current price reflects the aggregated expectations of all participants regarding which party will win the white voter demographic.
This market resolves around Nov 7, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the final vote counts and demographic breakdowns released by official election authorities, specifically focusing on the party that receives the most votes from white voters in the midterm elections. The outcome will be determined by established election results and verified against credible public sources, ensuring a transparent and objective resolution process. Traders should monitor news sources for official announcements regarding the election results.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before resolution. Major economic shifts, unexpected political endorsements, or significant changes in voter registration trends could all influence trader sentiment. Polling data releases, particularly those focusing on white voter preferences, will likely cause price adjustments. Furthermore, any unforeseen events impacting voter turnout or candidate performance could also lead to shifts in the odds. Unexpected news related to key candidates or parties could also move this market, as traders react to new information and reassess probabilities.
