TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Time left: 04d:00h:37m
Will Democrats win older women in the midterms?
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Description
This group forecasts which political party will win the support of women aged 65 and older in the 2026 US midterm elections. Resolution will be based on exit polling data, primarily from CNN, focusing on the national House elections. The markets aim to predict party preference among this demographic.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Polymarket provides detailed resolution criteria including fallback sources and tie-breaking rules, while Kalshi simply resolves based on which party wins the demographic.Hero tip: Prioritize tracking CNN exit poll data. Kalshi markets may exhibit greater volatility due to their less defined resolution criteria.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Resolves based on CNN exit polls for women 65+, with fallback sources (CBS, ABC) if CNN data is unavailable. Includes tie-breaking (alphabetical order) and an 'Other' outcome if no data is available. Resolution time is specified (Nov 6, 12:00PM ET).
- Kalshi: Resolves to 'Yes' if either the Democratic or Republican party wins older women (65+). No fallback sources, tie-breaking rules, or specific resolution timing are provided.
Polymarket
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the party that wins the greatest share of women aged 65 and older in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN. This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026. In the event that CNN does not provide numbers for women aged 65 and older, this market will resolve based on the oldest age for women for which data is available. In the event of a tie for first place, this market will resolve based on the party, among those tied, whose name comes first alphabetically. In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below. In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC. If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Kalshi
Resolution relies on national U.S. House exit poll data for older women (65+) in the 2026 midterms. The party with the higher share among this demographic wins; ties allocate settlement value equally. CNN reports the primary figure at Nov 6, 2026, 12:00 PM ET, with CBS and ABC as alternate sources.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional polling averages. Polls capture a snapshot in time and can be influenced by sampling bias or question wording. This market, however, reflects the collective wisdom of traders who continuously update their beliefs based on new information and incentives. While polls may show a certain lead, the price action in this market can reveal how confident people are in that lead, and how much they are willing to bet on it. It’s a dynamic comparison, as both prediction markets and polls evolve leading up to the midterms.
Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to several factors. Differences in user base, trading volume, and market-making activity all contribute. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform also has its own unique fee structure and liquidity dynamics, which can influence price discovery. Furthermore, differing interpretations of available information or varying risk appetites among traders on each platform can lead to discrepancies. While both platforms address the same question regarding the midterms older women vote, these nuances can result in distinct price signals.
This market resolves around Nov 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The winning party will be determined by the official exit poll data regarding the voting preferences of women aged 65 and older in the midterms. The outcome will be based on which party receives the most votes from this demographic, as reported by a trusted source. Traders should monitor news and election results leading up to the resolution date to stay informed about potential catalysts.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Major economic announcements, shifts in key policy debates, and unexpected endorsements could all influence trader sentiment. Changes in polling data specifically related to older women voters will be closely watched. Any significant news events impacting voter turnout or candidate favorability within this demographic could also move the market. Furthermore, unexpected developments in the political landscape, such as a major scandal or gaffe, could lead to rapid price adjustments in this market.