TOTAL VOLUME:
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24H VOL:
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24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
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420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Democrats
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Democrats - Polymarket
1W
News
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Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 6, 2026
Time left: 04d:03h:10m
Will Democrats win Latino voters in the Texas Senate election?
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Description
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the party that wins the greatest share of Latino voters in the 2026 United States Senate election in Texas according to exit polling provided by CNN. This market will resolve according to the exit polling for the 2026 United States Senate election in Texas, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026. In the event of a tie for first place, this market will resolve based on the party, among those tied, whose name comes first alphabetically. In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below. In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC. For purposes of this market, Latino and Hispanic will be considered synonymous; it will not matter which term is used by the resolution source. If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Polymarket
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the party that wins the greatest share of Latino voters in the 2026 United States Senate election in Texas according to exit polling provided by CNN. This market will resolve according to the exit polling for the 2026 United States Senate election in Texas, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026. In the event of a tie for first place, this market will resolve based on the party, among those tied, whose name comes first alphabetically. In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below. In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC. For purposes of this market, Latino and Hispanic will be considered synonymous; it will not matter which term is used by the resolution source. If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds suggest a different outcome than many traditional polls. While polls show a close race, this market indicates a higher probability of Republicans winning the Latino vote in the Texas Senate election. It's important to remember that polls capture a snapshot in time and are subject to sampling error, while prediction markets aggregate the views of many individuals who have 'skin in the game,' incentivizing more accurate forecasts. This difference may reflect differing assumptions about voter turnout or the reliability of poll data within this specific demographic.
This market resolves around Nov 7, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The winning party will be determined by the official election results as reported by the relevant election authorities in Texas, specifically the percentage of the Latino vote each party receives. The market will settle based on which party receives the greater share of the Latino vote in the Texas Senate election, as verified against credible public sources. Traders should monitor official election results as the resolution date approaches.
Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Major shifts in polling data specifically focused on Latino voters in Texas would likely cause price adjustments. Significant endorsements from influential Latino figures, or unexpected campaign events targeting this demographic, could also move the market. Furthermore, any news related to voter turnout efforts or changes to voting laws affecting Latino voters could influence trader sentiment and shift the probabilities reflected in this market. Unexpected economic news or national political developments could also indirectly impact the race.
