TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Time left: 04d:03h:28m
Will Democrats win Latino men in the midterms?
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Description
This group forecasts which political party will receive the largest share of the vote from Latino men in the 2026 US midterm elections. Resolution will be based on exit polling data, prioritizing CNN, then CBS, and finally ABC if necessary. The markets aim to predict the overall national outcome for this specific demographic.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Polymarket includes an 'Other' outcome for scenarios where neither major party wins or data is unavailable, while Kalshi only considers Democratic or Republican wins.Hero tip: Consider the possibility of a third-party win or data reporting failures when trading on Polymarket, as these scenarios could lead to resolution to 'Other' which is not possible on Kalshi.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Resolves based on the party with the greatest share of Latino men, including an 'Other' outcome if no major party wins or polling data is unavailable. "If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'."
- Kalshi: Resolves to 'Yes' if either the Democratic or Republican party wins, implicitly assuming a binary outcome. "If the Democratic Party wins Latino men in the 2026 United States midterm elections, then the market resolves to Yes."
Polymarket
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the party that wins the greatest share of Latino men in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN. This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026. In the event of a tie for first place, this market will resolve based on the party, among those tied, whose name comes first alphabetically. In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below. In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC. For purposes of this market, Latino and Hispanic will be considered synonymous; it will not matter which term is used by the resolution source. If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Kalshi
Settlement depends on national U.S. House exit polls for Latino men in the 2026 elections. The party with the higher reported share wins, and tied strikes share the settlement value. CNN supplies the primary data at Nov 6, 2026, 12:00 PM ET, with CBS and ABC as backup sources if required.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls capture a snapshot in time, this market reflects continuously updated beliefs based on new information and analysis. The difference in approach can lead to divergences, as markets aggregate diverse viewpoints and allow traders to bet on their convictions. It's important to remember that both methods have limitations; polls can suffer from biases, while markets can be influenced by speculative trading. However, prediction markets have historically demonstrated a strong track record of accuracy, often outperforming polls in forecasting election outcomes.
This market resolves around Nov 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on which party receives the majority of votes from Latino men, as determined by exit polls and official election results. The final outcome will be verified against reliable sources to ensure accuracy and transparency. Traders should monitor news and election results leading up to the resolution date to stay informed about potential catalysts that could influence the outcome of this market.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Major shifts in national or state-level polling data related to Latino voter preferences would be a key catalyst. Significant endorsements from influential Latino figures or organizations could also impact trading activity. Unexpected economic news or policy announcements that specifically target issues important to the Latino community could also cause price fluctuations. Finally, any major campaign events or gaffes involving candidates attempting to court the Latino vote could influence traders' perceptions and move this market.