TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 12:52 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Israel by October 27, 2026. This market will resolve based on which party Donald Trump announces that he supports, endorses, or otherwise tells people to vote for in the 2026 Israeli legislative election. In the event that Donald Trump endorses a candidate to be Prime Minister of Israel, this market will resolve in favor of the party that the individual represents as of the time of the endorsement or, if such individual does not represent a party, to the next party that the individual unambiguously represents. In the event that Donald Trump issues a qualifying endorsement of more than one candidate or party, it will be considered an endorsement of only either the party who was first endorsed or, should such a temporal determination not be possible, in alphabetical order of the endorsed parties. Statements that are clearly sarcastic, jokes, or immediately clarified as not reflecting genuine support shall not be considered relevant for purposes of this market. If Donald Trump does not announce an endorsement by the earliest of either December 31, 2026, or the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No Endorsement". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Donald Trump's endorsement.
Polymarket
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Israel by October 27, 2026. This market will resolve based on which party Donald Trump announces that he supports, endorses, or otherwise tells people to vote for in the 2026 Israeli legislative election. In the event that Donald Trump endorses a candidate to be Prime Minister of Israel, this market will resolve in favor of the party that the individual represents as of the time of the endorsement or, if such individual does not represent a party, to the next party that the individual unambiguously represents. In the event that Donald Trump issues a qualifying endorsement of more than one candidate or party, it will be considered an endorsement of only either the party who was first endorsed or, should such a temporal determination not be possible, in alphabetical order of the endorsed parties. Statements that are clearly sarcastic, jokes, or immediately clarified as not reflecting genuine support shall not be considered relevant for purposes of this market. If Donald Trump does not announce an endorsement by the earliest of either December 31, 2026, or the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No Endorsement". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Donald Trump's endorsement.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls attempt to capture a snapshot of current voter intentions, this market represents a weighted assessment of what traders believe will *actually* happen, incorporating information beyond simple stated preferences. Discrepancies can arise due to factors like perceived strategic voting, the influence of unforeseen events, or differing levels of trust in polling methodologies. It’s important to remember that both polls and this market offer distinct insights into the 2026 Israeli Election, and neither is necessarily ‘more correct’.
This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on whether Donald Trump publicly announces an endorsement of a specific party participating in the 2026 Israeli election. Any statement clearly indicating support for a particular party will be considered an endorsement. The absence of such a statement by the resolution date will result in a different outcome being determined. Traders should monitor news sources closely as the resolution date approaches.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Any direct statements from Donald Trump regarding the Israeli election, even if not a formal endorsement, would likely cause price fluctuations. Major political developments within Israel, such as a change in leadership or a shift in party platforms, could also influence trader sentiment. Unexpected geopolitical events in the region could also play a role, as they might affect Trump's calculations. Finally, any news regarding Trump's legal or political situation could impact his ability or willingness to engage in international politics.
