TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 28, 10:39 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
This group forecasts which political parties will gain representation in the 2026 Israeli Knesset elections. A party needs to surpass a 3.25% vote threshold to secure at least one seat. The markets assess the likelihood of individual parties achieving this threshold.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Kalshi markets are effectively 'OR' bets across 23 parties, while Polymarket focuses on individual parties. This creates a scope divergence.Hero tip: Be mindful of the correlation between Kalshi markets. A single party winning a seat will resolve many Kalshi markets to 'Yes'. Polymarket allows for more targeted predictions.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Asks whether a *specific* party will win a seat. "Question: Will RZP-Zehut win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?" Resolves to 'Yes' if the listed party wins at least one seat, otherwise 'No'."
- Kalshi: Resolves 'Yes' if *any* of the 23 listed parties win at least one seat. "If A Place for All of Us has won at least 1 seat in the 2026 Israeli legislative election, then the market resolves to Yes."
Polymarket
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. A candidate list must clear an electoral threshold of 3.25% of valid votes in order to win any seats in the Knesset. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed party wins at least one seat in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Kalshi
A seat is considered 'won' for any listed party when a candidate affiliated with that party is officially declared elected by the relevant electoral authority, and either the time for legal challenges has expired, all challenges have been resolved, or the elected member has taken their seat in the legislature. Party affiliation is determined solely by the banner under which the candidate was elected, irrespective of any subsequent changes. The count of seats is finalized when the new legislature convenes, even if some seats remain vacant or are subject to ongoing challenges. If the election is postponed beyond one year from its original date or cancelled entirely, all markets resolve to the last fair market price. Only seats from contested and filled elections—including by-elections seated simultaneously with the main legislature—are counted. Joint candidate lists are treated as single entities, with seats not credited separately to constituent parties. Newly formed joint or merged lists are considered distinct entities, and a name change alone does not alter a list's identity. Politicians elected under one list do not count toward their former party's seat tally. Surplus-vote agreements and post-election coalitions do not combine seat outcomes for resolution purposes. Importantly, any seat won by a list not explicitly included in the market specifications does not trigger a 'Yes' resolution for any of the listed markets.
Frequently asked questions
Numerous signals and events could significantly impact this market. Major political developments, such as party mergers, leadership changes, or shifts in public opinion following debates or scandals, would likely cause price fluctuations. Unexpected economic news or geopolitical events could also influence voter preferences and, consequently, the market. Polling data releases, while not always decisive, can also trigger movement. Any significant event that alters the perceived likelihood of a party winning seats in the 2026 Knesset elections will be reflected in the trading activity on Polymarket and Kalshi.