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Which company has the third best AI model end of July?
polymarket

Which company has the third best AI model end of July?

Volume:
$141,021

Anthropic

 - Polymarket

Anthropic - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 31, 2026

Closed: Jul 31, 5:35 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Anthropic

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$60,442
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Google

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14,711
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Alibaba

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,222
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Moonshot

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,173
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

OpenAI

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,194
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

xAI

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,834
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Meta

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,840
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Meituan

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,396
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

DeepSeek

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,999
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Baidu

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,196
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Amazon

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,101
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Mistral

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,043
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

ByteDance

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,695
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Microsoft

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,233
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Z.ai

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$943
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Company A

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Company B

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Company C

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Company D

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Company E

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Company F

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Company G

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Company H

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Company I

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Company K

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 26

Description

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard tracks real-time odds and historical price movements for which company will rank third in AI model capability by end of July on Polymarket. It displays current implied probability of each outcome, 24-hour trading volume of $7,385, and cumulative event volume of $141,021. Users can view price history charts, monitor order-book depth, and compare how market sentiment has shifted over time as new AI benchmarks, model releases, and competitive developments emerge in the rapidly evolving AI landscape.

Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-money consensus from traders actively pricing AI company rankings. Analyst forecasts from research firms and tech publications typically focus on model performance metrics and feature comparisons rather than competitive ranking. Market odds often diverge from analyst views because traders incorporate broader factors including commercial adoption, funding announcements, and competitive positioning. The prediction market provides a dynamic, continuously updated alternative to static analyst reports, capturing evolving expectations about which company will achieve third-best status by Jul 31, 2026.

On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, each candidate company is priced as a separate outcome contract. The price of each contract reflects the implied probability that company will rank third in AI capability by end of July. Traders buy and sell these outcome shares, and the market price adjusts in real time based on order flow, new model releases, benchmark results, and competitive announcements. Higher prices indicate stronger market belief in that outcome; lower prices suggest lower perceived likelihood. All outcome prices sum to 100 cents, ensuring the market remains internally consistent.

Major AI model releases or significant capability improvements from leading companies will directly influence third-place rankings and shift market odds. Benchmark results from independent evaluators, peer-reviewed research publications, and industry reports demonstrating model performance will move prices. Funding announcements, talent acquisitions, and partnership deals affecting AI development velocity matter. Competitive shifts among top-tier players may elevate or demote contenders for third place. Regulatory developments, safety evaluations, and real-world deployment success stories also signal capability and market positioning. Trader sentiment responds quickly to any news reshaping the perceived AI hierarchy.