TOTAL VOLUME:
$115.9b
24H VOL:
$78,242,292
24H TRANSACTIONS:
1,351,118,393
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,123,310,921
314,014
Markets across
30,653
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
3,372
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
42%
VS.
Kalshi:
58%
- Polymarket
Google - Polymarket
68%
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Aug 17
Aug 18
Aug 19
Aug 21
Aug 22
Aug 23
Aug 24
Vol.
$13.3k
·
Resolves Oct 31, 2026
$
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, prediction market odds in this market often reflect real-time trader sentiment and can diverge from institutional outlooks. While analysts may weigh long-term product roadmaps and financials, market participants price in near-term developments like product launches, partnerships, or user growth metrics. This can lead to sharper shifts in odds following news events.
On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, traders set the odds through buying and selling shares of possible outcomes. The current top outcome has a chance of 67.5%, with the market price reflecting the collective belief of participants about which company will lead by Oct 31, 2026. Volume of $446 shows how active trading is right now.
This market resolves around Oct 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The winner will be the company most widely recognized as the leader in Text-to-Video AI by that date, based on generally accepted industry metrics and public announcements.
Several signals could influence this market before it resolves on Oct 31, 2026. Major product releases, partnerships, or funding announcements from competing firms may shift trader sentiment. Industry analyst reports or benchmark evaluations highlighting technical performance could also impact odds. Any significant regulatory changes affecting AI development might introduce volatility. Additionally, high-profile demonstrations or user adoption metrics shared on social media platforms could cause rapid movements in this market as traders reassess probabilities.