TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,590,312

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,439,516,703

404,175

Markets across

30,277

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,685

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Which company has the best Text-to-Image AI end of August?
kalshi
polymarket

Which company has the best Text-to-Image AI end of August?

Volume:
$35,364

OpenAI

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 31, 2026

Closed: Aug 31, 6:29 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

OpenAI

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$21,588
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

OpenAI

View
100%
5%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$481
N/A
N/A
$471
Settled
Yes
polymarket

SpaceXAI

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,387
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

SpaceXAI

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Meta

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,070
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Microsoft AI

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,493
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Microsoft

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$56
N/A
N/A
$56
Settled
No
polymarket

Alibaba

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,265
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Ideogram

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,147
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Tencent

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$892
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Black Forest Labs

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$795
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Black Forest Labs

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$23
N/A
N/A
$23
Settled
No
polymarket

Luma AI

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$736
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Google

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$702
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Google

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Recraft

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$617
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Recraft

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Reve

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$605
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Reve

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Bytedance

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$507
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Bytedance

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Company A

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Company B

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Company C

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 38

Description

This event group determines which company will have the best Text-to-Image AI model as measured by the highest rank on a specified leaderboard at the end of August 2026. The resolution depends on the ranking of models owned by various companies on either the arena.ai or Artificial Analysis leaderboard.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Divergence due to different settlement dates and sources for determining the best Text-to-Image AI model.Hero tip: Traders should monitor both leaderboards and consider hedging positions due to the differing dates and sources.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Uses arena.ai Text-to-Image Leaderboard checked on August 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. Models are ordered primarily by leaderboard rank, with ties broken by listing order and then alphabetical order of company names.
  • Kalshi: Uses Artificial Analysis Text to Image Leaderboard checked on August 14, 2026, at 10:00am ET. The market resolves to Yes if the specified company is the #1 model on that leaderboard at that time.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Image Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Image Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Image Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-image (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Image Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Kalshi

Each market resolves to Yes if the respective company is ranked #1 on the Artificial Analysis Text to Image Leaderboard as of August 14, 2026, at 10:00am ET. Tied rankings are resolved using the publisher's official tie-breaking methodology; if none exists, all tied entities share the highest rank. If multiple candidates are tied for a rank, contracts resolve to $1 divided by the number of tied candidates, rounded down. Kalshi disclaims any affiliation with the Governing League, and all trademarks belong to their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

Several signals could shift this market before resolution, including major product launches, significant updates to existing models, partnerships announcements, or benchmark evaluations released by independent organizations. Media coverage highlighting technical advancements or user growth for any contender will also influence trader sentiment. Additionally, any regulatory developments affecting AI development timelines could cause rapid re-pricing across platforms.