TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$134,145,987

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,441,166,947

406,422

Markets across

30,383

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,688

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Which company has the best Math AI model end of June?
kalshi
polymarket

Which company has the best Math AI model end of June?

Volume:
$350,871

Google

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 30, 2026

Closed: Jun 29, 8:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Google

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$63,122
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Gemini

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$6,551
N/A
N/A
$3,357
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Anthropic

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$84,845
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Claude

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,589
N/A
N/A
$4,504
Settled
No
polymarket

OpenAI

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$48,043
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

ChatGPT

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$9,543
N/A
N/A
$7,074
Settled
No
polymarket

Z.ai

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$22,195
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

xAI

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$19,913
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Moonshot

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$19,737
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Alibaba

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$18,755
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

DeepSeek

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,133
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Mistral

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,780
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

ByteDance

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,400
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Meta

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,734
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Minimax

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,933
N/A
N/A
$3,118
Settled
No
polymarket

Meituan

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,512
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Microsoft

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,097
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Mimo

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,941
N/A
N/A
$2,725
Settled
No
polymarket

Baidu

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,769
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Qwen

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,608
N/A
N/A
$2,214
Settled
No
polymarket

Amazon

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,346
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Kimi

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,325
N/A
N/A
$1,619
Settled
No
polymarket

Company G

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Company J

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Company L

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 36

Description

This event group determines which company owns the best-performing Math AI model as ranked on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard on June 30, 2026. Both Polymarket and Kalshi reference the same resolution source (Arena AI Text Arena Leaderboard with Math category and style control off), but they differ in timing, model naming conventions, and scope of covered companies.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Two platforms reference the same underlying leaderboard source but differ in check timing (10:00 AM ET vs 12:00 PM ET), resolution unit (model name vs company ownership), and scope of predefined outcomes. Kalshi's model-name list is incomplete relative to Polymarket's company roster, creating potential for Kalshi to resolve as ambiguous or 'other' while Polymarket resolves to a named company.Hero tip: Monitor the leaderboard at both 10:00 AM ET and 12:00 PM ET on June 30, 2026. If the #1 model changes between these times, Kalshi and Polymarket may resolve to different outcomes. Verify that Kalshi's model names (Gemini, Kimi, Minimax, Qwen, Claude, Mimo, ChatGPT) map to Polymarket's companies (Google, Moonshot, Minimax, Alibaba, Anthropic, Meituan, OpenAI respectively). If the #1 model is not in Kalshi's list, Kalshi will likely resolve to No on all outcomes, while Polymarket resolves to the owning company.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves at June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Uses company ownership as resolution unit. Covers 30 named and unnamed companies (Meta, OpenAI, Google, Anthropic, xAI, Microsoft, DeepSeek, Baidu, Alibaba, ByteDance, Moonshot, Mistral, Z.ai, Meituan, Amazon, plus Companies A-M and 'any other company'). Explicit tiebreaker: rank → granular arena score → alphabetical company name. Quote: 'Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market's check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values... If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker.'
  • Kalshi: Resolves at June 30, 2026, 10:00 AM ET. Uses model name as resolution unit. Covers only 7 predefined models (Gemini, Kimi, Minimax, Qwen, Claude, Mimo, ChatGPT). No explicit tiebreaker rules stated. Quote: 'If Gemini is the #1 model on Arena AI Text Arena Leaderboard (Math) Style Control Off on Jun 30, 2026 at 10:00AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.' (repeated for each model; no fallback for unlisted models).
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Kalshi

The #1 model is determined by the Arena AI Text Arena Leaderboard (Math) ranking on June 30, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET with Style Control Off. If two models are tied under Rank, the model with the highest Arena Score resolves to Yes. If still tied after that comparison, the model with the most votes resolves to Yes. If tied after vote count, the model with the earlier release date resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds reflect real-money consensus from thousands of traders betting on which company delivers the best Math AI model by June 2026. Unlike traditional analyst forecasts, these odds update continuously and incorporate breaking news, research releases, and benchmark results instantly. Markets often price in nuanced competitive dynamics—such as model accuracy, inference speed, and real-world deployment success—that formal analyst reports may lag on. Cross-platform comparison reveals whether consensus is firm or contested.

Major catalysts include new Math AI model releases or updates from leading companies, published benchmark results on mathematical reasoning tasks, peer-reviewed papers demonstrating breakthrough performance, and announcements of real-world deployment wins. Academic competitions, industry conferences, and third-party evaluations can shift market perception rapidly. Regulatory changes affecting AI development, funding announcements, or talent acquisitions may also influence trader expectations. Monitor research labs, arXiv preprints, and tech news closely for signals that could reshape which company appears positioned to lead by June 2026.