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406,422

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Which company has the best Code Arena WebDev AI model end of July?
polymarket
kalshi

Which company has the best Code Arena WebDev AI model end of July?

Volume:
$106,921

Anthropic

 - Polymarket

Anthropic - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 31, 2026

Closed: Jul 31, 2:09 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Anthropic

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$17,517
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Kimi

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$11,012
N/A
N/A
$6,448
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Moonshot

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$27,146
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Claude

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$14,104
N/A
N/A
$11,882
Settled
No
polymarket

OpenAI

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,090
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Alibaba

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,732
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Google

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,754
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Z.ai

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,103
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

DeepSeek

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,087
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

MiniMax

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,107
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

MiniMax

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$444
N/A
N/A
$444
Settled
No
polymarket

SpaceXAI

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,502
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Poolside

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,257
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Tencent

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,137
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Xiaomi

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,101
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

ByteDance

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,069
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

ChatGPT

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$981
N/A
N/A
$981
Settled
No
polymarket

Meta

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$979
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Mistral

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$925
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Dola

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$824
N/A
N/A
$824
Settled
No
kalshi

Grok

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$544
N/A
N/A
$544
Settled
No
kalshi

Qwen

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$232
N/A
N/A
$232
Settled
No
kalshi

GLM

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$141
N/A
N/A
$141
Settled
No
kalshi

Gemini

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$132
N/A
N/A
$132
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 38

Description

This event group determines which AI company will have the highest-ranked code generation model on the Code Arena WebDev leaderboard at the end of July 2026. Polymarket offers binary markets for 16 named companies plus catch-all categories, while Kalshi offers binary markets for 9 specific AI models. The resolution hinges on leaderboard rank at a specified checkpoint date.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi use different resolution dates (July 31 vs July 27), different scope (company ownership vs model names), and potentially different leaderboard sources (Code Arena WebDev vs LM Code Arena). This creates a 4-day window where rankings could shift, and model-to-company mapping may not align.Hero tip: Monitor both leaderboards from July 27 onward. If the same model leads on both dates, cross-platform outcomes will align. If rankings change between July 27 and July 31, or if the leaderboards diverge, Polymarket and Kalshi may resolve to different winners. Verify the leaderboard URLs and confirm whether they are identical or separate datasets before market close.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves on July 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Uses company ownership of the highest-ranked model on the Code Arena WebDev leaderboard. Includes 16 named companies (OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Meta, etc.), a catch-all 'any other company' category, and 13 placeholder companies (Company A through M). Tiebreaker: leaderboard position, then alphabetical order of company names.
  • Kalshi: Resolves on July 27, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET. Uses individual model names (Claude, Qwen, ChatGPT, Grok, Dola, GLM, Kimi, Gemini, MiniMax) on the LM Code Arena Leaderboard. No catch-all or placeholder categories. Each model is a separate binary market.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev) when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Models" is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by checking the LM Code Arena Leaderboard on July 27, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET to identify which model holds the #1 position. When models are tied for a given rank, the publisher's official tie-breaking methodology applies; if no such methodology exists, tied models collectively share the highest rank among them. If multiple models are tied for the top position, each tied model's contract resolves to $1 divided by the number of tied models, rounded down.

Frequently asked questions

The Code Arena WebDev AI model race aggregates prediction market data across Polymarket and Kalshi to track which company will deploy the strongest web development AI model by end of July. Traders on both venues assess competing models based on benchmarks, real-world performance, and developer adoption. This dashboard consolidates cross-platform consensus, showing how market participants collectively evaluate the competitive landscape. Total volume across venues reflects sustained interest in this emerging category, where rapid iteration and capability improvements drive ongoing price discovery and sentiment shifts among prediction market participants.

Prediction markets operate on real-money incentives, forcing participants to stake capital on their convictions rather than offer opinions. This mechanism often produces more accurate near-term forecasts than traditional analyst reports, which may lag market developments or carry institutional biases. In this market, traders continuously update odds as new model releases, benchmark results, and competitive announcements emerge. Analyst forecasts tend to be slower-moving and less granular; prediction markets capture minute-by-minute shifts in perceived likelihood, making them a complementary signal for tracking which company's AI model is gaining credibility.

Major model releases, benchmark results, and developer adoption metrics will drive significant price swings. Announcements of new features, performance improvements, or enterprise partnerships can shift trader sentiment rapidly. Industry conferences, technical papers, and competitive comparisons published by credible sources will influence odds. Regulatory developments affecting AI deployment may also matter. Real-world usage data—such as GitHub stars, API call volumes, or hiring trends—provides concrete signals. Any unexpected technical breakthrough or setback from a leading contender could trigger sharp repricing across both venues as traders reassess the competitive hierarchy.