TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$130,522,377

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,438,389,636

404,028

Markets across

30,214

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,681

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
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Science and Technology
Which company has the best AI Agent end of June?
polymarket

Which company has the best AI Agent end of June?

Volume:
$61,676

Anthropic

 - Polymarket

Anthropic - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 30, 2026

Closed: Jun 29, 8:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Anthropic

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$21,617
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

OpenAI

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,686
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Google

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,897
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Meta

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,720
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Baidu

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,582
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Z.ai

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,512
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Microsoft

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,386
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

DeepSeek

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,143
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

xAI

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,460
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Meituan

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,174
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

ByteDance

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,072
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Moonshot

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$996
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Amazon

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$870
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Mistral

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$800
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Alibaba

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$760
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Company B

N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Company G

N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Company H

N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Company M

N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Company K

N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Company C

N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Company D

N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Company I

N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Company A

N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Company F

N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 29

Description

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Frequently asked questions

The market resolves on Jun 30, 2026. Resolution depends on a predetermined evaluation framework that assesses which company's AI Agent is deemed best according to specified criteria—such as benchmark performance, capability breadth, real-world deployment success, or expert consensus at that time. The exact determination mechanism is established in the market's terms and will be applied by the resolution authority on or shortly after the end date. Traders should review the market's full resolution criteria before placing positions to understand how the winning outcome will be officially confirmed.

Major catalysts include new AI model releases, benchmark results (MMLU, ARC, real-world task performance), regulatory announcements, and competitive product launches from Microsoft, Anthropic, OpenAI, Google, and other contenders. Significant breakthroughs in reasoning, multimodal capabilities, or autonomous agent functionality could shift market expectations. Acquisition announcements, key talent moves, and partnership developments also influence trader sentiment. Enterprise adoption milestones, government endorsements, and third-party evaluations of AI safety and reliability may sway perceptions of which company's agent is genuinely best. Media coverage and industry consensus shifts closer to the end date typically drive final price adjustments as the resolution deadline approaches.