TOTAL VOLUME:

$116.8b

24H VOL:

$86,261,101

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,362,287,844

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,161,631,380

338,606

Markets across

33,200

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,216

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

Where will a 6.0+ earthquake occur by end of August?

Where will a 6.0+ earthquake occur by end of August?

Aug 11, 2026, 6:03 PM EST - Sep 3, 2026, 7:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$23,666
Volume 24h:
$3,689
32%
Liquidity:
$3,437
24%
Open interest:
$11,959N/A

Indonesia

 - Polymarket

Indonesia - Polymarket

99.4%

-0.5%

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Aug 20

Aug 21

Aug 22

Aug 23

Aug 24

Aug 26

Aug 27

Vol.

$1.1k

·

Resolves Sep 3, 2026

Time left: 07d:19h:25m

Will a 6.0+ earthquake occur in Indonesia by August 31?

98%chance
Amount

$

You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
MUI X License key version mismatch
Total markets: 7

Description

This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0+ attributed to the listed country, with an origin time between market creation and the end of the listed month (UTC), by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month (UTC). Otherwise, that market resolves "No". A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country (or its offshore territory) in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify. If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after the specified month and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude, country attribution and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point. Revisions to the underlying data, such as country attribution and preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered. The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market will resolve to "No."

Polymarket

This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0+ attributed to the listed country, with an origin time between market creation and the end of the listed month (UTC), by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month (UTC). Otherwise, that market resolves "No". A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country (or its offshore territory) in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify. If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after the specified month and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude, country attribution and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point. Revisions to the underlying data, such as country attribution and preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered. The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market will resolve to "No."

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the 6.0+ earthquake market tracks real-time odds and price movements on Polymarket. It shows how traders view the likelihood of a magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake occurring before the deadline, with updates reflecting market sentiment and recent seismic activity. You can also see the current volume of $23,666 and 24-hour volume of $1,774 to gauge interest.

Currently, this market shows a strong tilt toward an event occurring, with odds near 96.9%. This contrasts with many analyst forecasts, which often assign lower probabilities to significant earthquakes in specific time frames. The gap suggests traders may be pricing in recent seismic patterns or regional tensions not fully reflected in traditional risk models.

On Polymarket, traders currently assign a probability to whether a 6.0+ earthquake will occur by the end of August. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market reflects collective trader sentiment, with prices adjusting based on new geological data, seismic activity reports, and regional monitoring updates. As we approach Sep 3, 2026, any significant tremor or aftershock activity could cause rapid shifts in the odds. The current top outcome shows a strong inclination toward occurrence, but trader dynamics remain fluid.

This market resolves around Sep 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. If any recorded earthquake meets the magnitude threshold before the deadline, the 'Yes' share pays out; otherwise, the 'No' share wins.

Several signals could impact this market before Sep 3, 2026. Notable seismic activity above magnitude 6.0 anywhere in the world would likely push the probability higher. Conversely, a month of stable tectonic reports might lower expectations. Government alerts, geological survey updates, and media coverage of fault line movements also influence trader behavior. Natural phenomena like volcanic unrest or significant aftershocks may cause rapid repricing as the market tracks real-time earthquake monitoring data.