TOTAL VOLUME:
$116.8b
24H VOL:
$86,261,101
24H TRANSACTIONS:
1,362,287,844
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,161,631,380
338,606
Markets across
33,200
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,216
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
42%
VS.
Kalshi:
58%
Indonesia
- Polymarket
Indonesia - Polymarket
99.4%
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Aug 20
Aug 21
Aug 22
Aug 23
Aug 24
Aug 26
Aug 27
Vol.
$1.1k
·
Resolves Sep 3, 2026
Time left: 07d:19h:25m
$
This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0+ attributed to the listed country, with an origin time between market creation and the end of the listed month (UTC), by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month (UTC). Otherwise, that market resolves "No". A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country (or its offshore territory) in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify. If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after the specified month and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude, country attribution and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point. Revisions to the underlying data, such as country attribution and preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered. The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market will resolve to "No."
This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0+ attributed to the listed country, with an origin time between market creation and the end of the listed month (UTC), by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month (UTC). Otherwise, that market resolves "No". A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country (or its offshore territory) in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify. If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after the specified month and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude, country attribution and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point. Revisions to the underlying data, such as country attribution and preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered. The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market will resolve to "No."
Currently, this market shows a strong tilt toward an event occurring, with odds near 96.9%. This contrasts with many analyst forecasts, which often assign lower probabilities to significant earthquakes in specific time frames. The gap suggests traders may be pricing in recent seismic patterns or regional tensions not fully reflected in traditional risk models.
On Polymarket, traders currently assign a probability to whether a 6.0+ earthquake will occur by the end of August. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market reflects collective trader sentiment, with prices adjusting based on new geological data, seismic activity reports, and regional monitoring updates. As we approach Sep 3, 2026, any significant tremor or aftershock activity could cause rapid shifts in the odds. The current top outcome shows a strong inclination toward occurrence, but trader dynamics remain fluid.
This market resolves around Sep 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. If any recorded earthquake meets the magnitude threshold before the deadline, the 'Yes' share pays out; otherwise, the 'No' share wins.
Several signals could impact this market before Sep 3, 2026. Notable seismic activity above magnitude 6.0 anywhere in the world would likely push the probability higher. Conversely, a month of stable tectonic reports might lower expectations. Government alerts, geological survey updates, and media coverage of fault line movements also influence trader behavior. Natural phenomena like volcanic unrest or significant aftershocks may cause rapid repricing as the market tracks real-time earthquake monitoring data.