TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.1b
24H VOL:
$172,394,893
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,983,476,643
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,821,572,886
404,136
Markets across
40,075
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,369
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Before Nov 1, 2026
- Kalshi
Before Nov 1, 2026 - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Oct 23, 2026
Latest in Politics
Closed: Oct 23, 6:02 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
A U.S. president could issue an executive order or policy directive that imposes new tariffs or raises existing ones on goods imported from Canada. Such actions typically require formal announcement and documentation to take effect.
Kalshi
The event resolves if Donald Trump personally announces a new presidential action imposing or increasing tariffs on Canadian imports before Oct 1, 2026, Nov 1, 2026, Dec 1, 2026, or Jan 1, 2027. The action must be a formal policy decision with legal or policy effect, explicitly addressing tariffs on Canada, and documented by a Source Agency. Ceremonial statements, incidental mentions, cabinet actions, legislative proposals, or agency-only notices do not qualify. A specified future effective date is permissible, but threats, remarks, or scheduled activations of prior measures are excluded. Official announcement is satisfied by Trump-signed documentation published by a Source Agency.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than traditional polling data on the likelihood of Trump raising tariffs on Canada. While polls capture stated intentions, this market reflects what individuals are willing to put their money on. This often reveals a more nuanced and potentially accurate forecast, as traders have a financial stake in correctly predicting the outcome. Discrepancies can arise due to factors like information asymmetry and strategic trading, offering a unique signal beyond simple public opinion.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing the probability of Trump raising tariffs on Canada before May 1, 2027. The price of a contract reflects the market’s collective belief about the likelihood of that event occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the price adjusts to reflect the evolving consensus. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures the market remains responsive to relevant developments.
This market resolves around May 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on whether a formal announcement of increased tariffs on goods imported from Canada by the United States has been made by the relevant authorities. The market will settle to 100 if tariffs are raised, and 0 if they are not. The focus is on a definitive policy change, not preliminary discussions or proposals.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Any direct statements from Donald Trump regarding trade policy with Canada would be a major catalyst. Economic data releases, particularly those related to the US-Canada trade balance, could also influence trader sentiment. Geopolitical events or shifts in the political landscape could also play a role. Unexpected policy announcements from the current administration regarding trade negotiations or international relations would likely cause a substantial shift in the odds for this market.
