TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 23, 4:15 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
A U.S. president might decide to reduce, remove, or suspend existing tariffs on Canadian imports through an official policy change. This would involve formal procedures and announcements to alter trade terms between the two nations.
Kalshi
The event resolves if Donald Trump personally announces a new presidential action reducing, removing, or suspending existing tariffs on Canadian imports before Oct 1, 2026, Nov 1, 2026, Dec 1, 2026, or Jan 1, 2027. The action must be a formal policy decision with legal or policy effect, explicitly addressing tariff adjustments on Canada, and documented by a Source Agency. Ceremonial statements, incidental mentions, cabinet actions, legislative proposals, or agency-only notices are ineligible. A specified future effective date is allowed, but threats, remarks, or scheduled activations/expirations of prior measures do not count. Official announcement is satisfied by Trump-signed documentation published by a Source Agency.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls capture stated preferences, this market represents what people are *willing to put their money on*. This can lead to divergences, especially on events with significant uncertainty or where respondents may not have strong opinions. It's important to remember that polls measure opinions, while this market aggregates predictions, and both can offer valuable insights into potential outcomes regarding the US-Canada tariff situation. The difference often highlights how informed and motivated traders believe various scenarios are.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders submit buy and sell orders for contracts that pay out $1 if the event occurs by Jan 8, 2027, and $0 if it does not. The current price of a contract reflects the market’s collective probability assessment of that outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price fluctuates based on supply and demand, with higher prices indicating a greater perceived chance of Trump lowering tariffs on Canada. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to rapidly incorporate new information and adjust expectations.
This market resolves around Jan 8, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on whether former President Trump announces a policy change lowering tariffs on goods imported from Canada before the resolution date. Any official statement from Trump or a relevant government agency will be considered, as will reporting from major news organizations. The market will then settle based on whether a verifiable reduction in tariffs has occurred, as determined by publicly available information.
Several signals could significantly move this market. Any direct statements from Donald Trump regarding his trade policy with Canada would be a major catalyst. Economic data releases showing a slowdown in either the US or Canadian economy could also influence trader sentiment. Furthermore, political developments, such as changes in the US administration or shifts in Canada’s negotiating stance, could impact the market. Unexpected geopolitical events or trade disputes involving other countries could also indirectly affect the likelihood of tariff adjustments, causing fluctuations in this market.
