TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks whether Donald Trump will engage in actual golf play during a specific weekend in October 2026. The focus is on verifying participation in a full or partial round of golf, distinguishing it from related activities like visiting a course or ceremonial shots. Sources will confirm his golfing status for accurate resolution.
Kalshi
The event determines whether Donald Trump will golf on any day during the weekend of October 23-25, 2026, with four possible outcomes corresponding to each day or the entire weekend combined. Golfing is strictly defined as playing a round or any part thereof on a golf course; merely being present at a course, using a golf cart, attending events, practicing, or taking ceremonial shots will not count. The primary source for verification is Trump Golf Track (trumpgolftrack.com), which must list a date as “confirmed golf” for the outcome to resolve as Yes. If Trump Golf Track lacks sufficient data, secondary sources such as White House pool reports and editorial photo agencies — including Getty Images, Reuters Connect, and AP Photos — may be used to confirm or refute golf activity. Each market resolves independently based on activity on its specific date, while the weekend market resolves only if Trump does not golf on any of the three days.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional polls. While polls attempt to gauge stated preferences, this market aggregates real-money wagers, representing what people *believe* will happen. If polls indicate a low probability of Trump golfing this weekend, but volume increases on the 'yes' side of this market, it suggests traders anticipate factors not captured in polling data, such as a change in schedule or a desire for publicity. This difference highlights the unique insight offered by prediction markets.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders can buy 'yes' contracts if they believe Trump will golf and sell 'yes' contracts if they believe he won't. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring. As more people buy 'yes' contracts, the price increases, and the implied probability of Trump golfing rises. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth and order book are visible on the Kalshi interface, providing transparency into trading activity.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on whether verifiable evidence emerges of Donald Trump completing at least one full 18-hole round of golf between October 23rd and October 25th. News reports, social media posts, and official statements will be considered as potential sources of verification. The outcome will be determined based on widely accepted definitions of a completed golf round.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any announcements regarding Trump’s schedule, particularly those mentioning planned leisure activities, would be a key driver. Unexpected travel plans or political engagements could decrease the likelihood of a golf outing, while favorable weather conditions at his golf courses might increase it. Media coverage focusing on Trump’s activities and public appearances could also influence trader sentiment and move the market. Finally, any statements made by Trump himself regarding his weekend plans would likely have a substantial effect.
