TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 9, 5:50 PM EST
Polymarket
Intro
This market tracks when Donald Trump will announce a new White House Press Secretary to replace Karoline Leavitt. Currently, the consensus probability is 100% that an announcement will occur by October 14, 2026, with a 100% probability that an announcement will occur by November 30, 2026. This aggregated view combines data from Kalshi, Polymarket, and Predict, and will resolve based on official information from the Trump administration, or a consensus of credible reporting. Keep an eye on December 1, 2026, as this is the current estimated date for market resolution.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: The markets diverge on the specific dates for potential resolution, and Kalshi offers a broader range of dates than Polymarket. Polymarket also provides a more detailed description of what constitutes a qualifying announcement.Hero tip: Prioritize Polymarket markets for clearer resolution criteria. Consider the cumulative probability across Kalshi markets if you believe an announcement is likely within the extended timeframe.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Markets resolve 'Yes' if Trump or the administration announces a new Press Secretary by a specific date (e.g., August 21, 2026), excluding acting/interim appointments. Resolution source is official information or a consensus of credible reporting. 'Any qualifying announcement made within this market's time frame will count, regardless of when the new Press Secretary is sworn in or begins serving.'
- Kalshi: Offers a series of markets resolving 'Yes' if an announcement is made by a specific date (ranging from August 14, 2026, to January 1, 2027). Includes announcements on platforms like Truth Social. Does not explicitly exclude acting/interim appointments in the market descriptions themselves, relying on the general rule.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump or the Trump administration announces a new White House Press Secretary to replace Karoline Leavitt between market creation and the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An individual announced as an acting or interim Press Secretary will not qualify toward this market's resolution. Any qualifying announcement made within this market's time frame will count, regardless of when the new Press Secretary is sworn in or begins serving. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Kalshi
The event resolves to Yes if Donald Trump announces his next White House Press Secretary — whether permanent, acting, or interim — at any point before any of the specified dates between August 14, 2026, and September 1, 2026. Announcements must be made directly by Trump, for example through a Truth Social post or similar public communication, for the market to settle positively. The outcome depends solely on the earliest date by which such an announcement occurs relative to the defined thresholds.
Predict
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump or the Trump administration announces a new White House Press Secretary to replace Karoline Leavitt between market creation and the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An individual announced as an acting or interim Press Secretary will not qualify toward this market's resolution. Any qualifying announcement made within this market's time frame will count, regardless of when the new Press Secretary is sworn in or begins serving. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently asked questions
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Any direct statements from Donald Trump regarding a potential Press Secretary replacement would be a major catalyst. News reports detailing internal discussions within Trump's team, or leaks about potential candidates, could also shift the odds. Unexpected resignations or departures from the current White House staff could accelerate the timeline for an announcement. Finally, broader political events, such as the upcoming election cycle, might influence Trump’s decision-making process and, consequently, the price action in this market.