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When will SpaceXAI release Grok 4.6?
kalshi

When will SpaceXAI release Grok 4.6?

Volume:
$168,352

Before Aug 13, 2026

 - Kalshi

Before Aug 13, 2026 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 12, 2026

Closed: Aug 12, 11:55 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Before Aug 13, 2026

View
100%
50%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$84,986
N/A
N/A
$25,088
3mo 2d
Yes
kalshi

Before Aug 15, 2026

View
100%
14%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$27,097
N/A
N/A
$11,386
3mo 2d
Yes
kalshi

Before Aug 9, 2026

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$15,980
N/A
N/A
$7,293
3mo 2d
No
kalshi

Before Aug 11, 2026

View
0%
7%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$14,897
N/A
N/A
$5,510
3mo 2d
No
kalshi

Before Aug 10, 2026

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$10,352
N/A
N/A
$9,124
3mo 2d
No
kalshi

Before Aug 8, 2026

View
0%
11%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$9,468
N/A
N/A
$4,412
3mo 2d
No
kalshi

Before Aug 7, 2026

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,631
N/A
N/A
$2,123
3mo 2d
No
kalshi

Before Aug 6, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,942
N/A
N/A
$1,457
3mo 2d
No
Total markets: 8

Description

This event tracks the timeline for SpaceXAI's public release of its Grok 4.6 AI model. A successful resolution requires the model to be made available to the general public, not confined to private testing, though it may be offered through a premium subscription service. The outcome hinges on when—if at all—the software becomes accessible under these conditions.

Kalshi

The event resolves to Yes if SpaceXAI publicly releases Grok 4.6 at any point before August 10, 2026. The release must be available to the general public, meaning it cannot remain exclusive to a closed beta program. However, the model may be offered through a high-cost subscription tier without affecting the outcome. The exact date of release within the specified window does not matter; any public launch prior to August 10, 2026, satisfies the resolution criteria. If no such public release occurs by that date, the event resolves to No.