TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 27, 10:18 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks whether the U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) will officially add a specific software vulnerability identifier to its catalog of known exploited vulnerabilities by a set date. The catalog helps guide organizations on which security flaws pose the greatest immediate risk and should be prioritized for patching. The outcome depends solely on CISA's formal action, not on independent reports of exploitation or related statements.
Kalshi
The event resolves to Yes if CISA officially adds CVE-2026-109618 to its Known Exploited Vulnerabilities (KEV) Catalog prior to the specified date for any given market. The KEV catalog is published on CISA’s website and as a JSON feed, and the resolution depends only on the Date Added recorded for CVE-2026-109618 in that catalog. Any subsequent removal of the entry does not affect the resolution once it has occurred. Importantly, the market does not resolve to Yes based on related actions such as CISA issuing alerts or advisories about the vulnerability, making statements regarding exploitation observations, or urging organizations to patch it. Additionally, reports of exploitation from sources other than CISA, or entries for a related vulnerability (CVE-2026-109619), do not trigger a resolution. The outcome hinges strictly on CISA’s formal catalog entry for CVE-2026-109618 before the relevant deadline.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to specific analyst forecasts regarding CISA’s KEV catalog additions. However, the price action reflects a collective assessment of the likelihood of the event occurring by traders on Kalshi. If analysts are consistently predicting a high probability of CVE-2026-109618 being added to the KEV catalog, we would expect to see the price of ‘yes’ outcomes increase in this market, and vice versa. This market provides a real-time, incentivized forecast that can be contrasted with traditional expert opinions.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market’s implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to set prices accurately because they profit from correctly predicting the event's outcome. The current price indicates what traders are willing to pay or accept for a contract that pays out if CISA adds CVE-2026-109618 to the KEV catalog before the resolution date.
This market resolves around Apr 8, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the market will look for an official announcement from CISA adding CVE-2026-109618 to the KEV catalog. The determination will be based on publicly available information from CISA’s official channels. The outcome of this market is simply whether or not the specified CVE has been added to the KEV catalog by the resolution date, as confirmed by verifiable sources.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding the severity of CVE-2026-109618, such as active exploitation in the wild, would likely increase the probability of CISA adding it to the KEV catalog, driving up prices. Conversely, if evidence emerges suggesting the vulnerability is not actively exploited or has been effectively mitigated, prices could fall. Official statements from CISA regarding their KEV catalog review process, or announcements of related security advisories, would also be key catalysts for price movement in this market.
