TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 14, 2:29 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
During a keynote address at a major company conference, the CEO may reference various strategic initiatives, technologies, or partners. The specific words mentioned can signal priorities or partnerships, influencing stakeholder perceptions and market expectations.
Kalshi
The event centers on whether Aneel Bhusri, during the Workday Rising 2026 Innovation Keynote, utters any of several specified phrases. Each market corresponds to a unique phrase; if Bhusri says the exact phrase (or its plural/possessive form) in an official capacity during the live broadcast, that market resolves positively. Resolution relies primarily on live video, with official transcripts used as a tiebreaker if video consensus cannot be reached. Grammatical variations, unauthenticated off-mic comments, or pre-recorded materials do not count. If the keynote is canceled, the “Event does not qualify” market wins, and all others lose. Postponements within 14 days keep markets open. The outcome hinges solely on verbal mention during the official keynote stream.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts regarding the Workday Innovation Keynote. While analysts often provide qualitative assessments of potential announcements, this market allows traders to express their beliefs with quantifiable probabilities. This difference in methodology can lead to divergences – for example, if traders believe a specific feature announcement is more or less likely than analysts predict. It’s valuable to consider both sources of information when forming your own expectations about the event’s key takeaways.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different statements the CEO might make. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective probability of that statement being uttered. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect new information and changing sentiment. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to aggregate diverse perspectives and generate a forward-looking estimate of the keynote’s content, based on the wisdom of the crowd.
This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, following the conclusion of the Workday Innovation Keynote address. The outcome will be determined by a review of the official transcript or video recording of the keynote, verified against credible public reporting. The market will assess whether each statement included in the market was explicitly made by the Workday CEO during the event. The resolution process focuses on direct statements, not implications or interpretations of the CEO’s remarks.
Several signals could significantly impact this market before Oct 27, 2026. Any pre-keynote announcements from Workday, even seemingly minor ones, could shift trader sentiment. Analyst reports offering predictions about the keynote’s focus are also likely to influence prices. Unexpected news related to Workday’s competitors or the broader enterprise software landscape could also play a role. Finally, any leaks or rumors circulating about the keynote’s content, even if unconfirmed, could generate trading activity and price movements in this market.
