TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Sep 29, 5:03 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between September 28, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution. Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Mentions/Period+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between September 28, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution. Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Mentions/Period+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls attempt to gauge stated preferences, this market represents what people are *willing to bet* will actually happen. This difference can be significant, especially when considering the potential for strategic misreporting in polls or unforeseen events influencing Trump’s statements. The spread between prediction market probabilities and polling averages can offer valuable insights into the perceived credibility of different outcomes and the potential for surprises.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the likelihood of different outcomes. The price of a share directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. This creates a dynamic and responsive pricing system that attempts to accurately forecast the likelihood of Trump making specific statements.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on a review of publicly available transcripts, video recordings, and official statements made by Donald Trump between September 28 and October 4. The outcome will reflect which statement, if any, most closely matches the options presented in this market. The focus is on verified statements, not speculation or rumors.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 4, 2026. Major news events, such as legal developments related to Trump, significant political announcements, or unexpected social media activity, could all influence trader sentiment. A shift in media coverage or a prominent endorsement could also impact the odds. Any indication of Trump's planned schedule or focus for the week could also drive trading activity in this market, as traders adjust their predictions based on anticipated statements.
