TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 14, 4:16 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between October 12, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution. Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Mentions/Period+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between October 12, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution. Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Mentions/Period+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls aim to capture stated preferences, this market reflects what people are willing to *bet* will happen. This difference can be significant, especially when considering events with high uncertainty or strong partisan divides. It’s common to see this market diverge from polls, particularly when assessing the likelihood of specific, potentially controversial statements, as opposed to general favorability. The market offers a unique signal based on incentivized forecasting.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in each outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. Higher volume generally indicates greater confidence in the market's assessment, while significant price swings can signal breaking news or changing perceptions about the potential statements from Donald Trump.
This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the statements made by Donald Trump between October 12 and October 18 are verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on a comprehensive review of transcripts, video recordings, and official statements released during that timeframe. The market will determine which outcome best reflects the overall content and focus of his public communications during the specified period.
Several signals could significantly impact this market before it resolves around Oct 19, 2026. Any unexpected public appearances, rallies, or interviews by Donald Trump would likely cause shifts in the odds. Major news events, particularly those involving legal proceedings or political endorsements, could also be influential. Furthermore, statements made by key political figures reacting to Trump’s actions could drive trading activity. Finally, any leaks or credible reports about Trump’s planned messaging for the week could move this market.
