TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Dividend / Stimulus
- Kalshi
Dividend / Stimulus - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 9, 2026
Time left: 06d:16h:08m
Will Trump say "Dividend / Stimulus" before Nov 9, 2026?
$
Description
This event tracks whether Donald Trump will mention specific keywords in public statements within a defined timeframe. The outcome depends on his verbal or written use of these terms in speeches, social media posts, or quoted remarks, excluding formal governmental actions.
Kalshi
The event resolves to Yes if Donald Trump uses any of the specified keywords—whether singular, plural, or possessive forms—in public statements between November 2, 2026, at 12:00am ET and November 9, 2026, at 12:00am ET. Valid statements include direct quotes from speeches, announcements published by recognized news agencies, or posts on his personal social media accounts (Twitter/Truth Social). Official governmental actions such as executive orders, signed bills, or similar formal documents are explicitly excluded from consideration. The exact term must appear as stated, with grammatical or tense variations not affecting eligibility. Keywords include geopolitical terms, policy phrases, names, technical concepts, and cultural references, each treated individually under the same verification criteria.
Frequently asked questions
Generally, prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts rely on expert opinions and models, this market reflects the wisdom of the crowd, aggregating the beliefs of many individuals. It’s not uncommon to see discrepancies between the two, particularly when dealing with events influenced by unpredictable factors like public statements. This market provides a real-time assessment of probabilities, potentially identifying insights that might be overlooked by conventional analysis.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing potential outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s current assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust accordingly, creating a dynamic and responsive market. The market’s price movements are driven entirely by supply and demand from users trading on the platform.
This market resolves around Nov 9, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on a review of publicly available transcripts, video recordings, and official statements made by Donald Trump during the specified timeframe. The determination will focus on whether any of the listed statements were demonstrably made, as verified against credible public sources. The market will then settle based on whether the 'yes' or 'no' outcome is confirmed.
Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Any major political developments involving Donald Trump, such as campaign rallies, interviews, or legal proceedings, could prompt shifts in the odds. Unexpected policy announcements or controversial statements would also likely cause movement. Media coverage and public reactions to Trump’s statements are also key factors. Furthermore, any perceived changes in his communication strategy or focus could influence how traders assess the probability of specific statements being made before Nov 9, 2026.
