TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 2, 9:53 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks whether Donald Trump will mention any of 35 specific terms or phrases in public statements before November 2, 2026. The terms range from political topics and international relations to domestic issues and cultural references, requiring exact matches in direct quotes or social media posts.
Kalshi
The event resolves to Yes if Donald Trump states any of the 35 specified terms or phrases — including plural or possessive forms — in public statements, direct quotes from source agencies, or written posts on his personal social media accounts (Twitter/Truth Social) before November 2, 2026 at 12:00am ET. Each term must appear exactly as listed, though plural or possessive variations are acceptable. Phrases with slashes (e.g., "UFO/UAP") satisfy the criterion if either version is used. Official acts such as executive orders or signed bills do not count toward resolution, nor do grammatical or tense inflections of the specified terms. The resolution depends solely on the occurrence of any one of the listed phrases in qualifying public communications.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may focus on strategic communication or policy implications, this market represents a collective assessment of what Donald Trump is actually likely to say. Discrepancies can arise from differing methodologies and the ability of the market to rapidly incorporate new information, such as breaking news or shifts in public opinion. It's common to see this market assign higher probabilities to seemingly unlikely events if there’s a perceived pattern in past behavior, something analysts might discount. This dynamic makes the market a valuable counterpoint to conventional wisdom.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief in the probability of each outcome. As more people buy a contract, its price increases, reflecting a higher perceived chance of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a contract directly corresponds to its implied probability; a higher price indicates a greater likelihood, according to the collective judgment of those trading in the market. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for real-time adjustments based on new information and changing sentiment.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on a review of publicly available transcripts, video recordings, and official statements made by Donald Trump during the specified timeframe. The market will determine whether any of the listed statements were made, and the outcome will be based on the most accurate and widely accepted record of his public communications.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Major political events, such as debates, rallies, or significant legislative developments, are likely to trigger movement. Unexpected legal developments involving Donald Trump would also be a key catalyst. Furthermore, shifts in the broader news cycle, particularly regarding topics he frequently addresses, could influence trading activity. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Finally, any direct statements from Trump himself, even off-the-cuff remarks, could rapidly shift probabilities. This market will resolve around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting.
