TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 24, 10:38 PM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks whether Donald Trump will publicly state specific phrases, with current probabilities at 100.0% for both “Will Trump say \"Stupid Question\" before Oct 26, 2026?” and “Will Trump say \"Crypto / Bitcoin\" before Oct 26, 2026?” on Kalshi. Resolution will be determined by whether Donald Trump states “Autopen / Auto Pen, or a plural or possessive form of Autopen / Auto Pen” within the specified window after October 19, 2026 at 10:30am ET and before Oct 26, 2026 at 12:00am ET. Keep a close eye on Trump’s public statements leading up to the resolution date of October 26, 2026, as that marks the end of the betting period for this market.
Kalshi
The event resolves to Yes if Donald Trump uses any of the 38 specified phrases or their plural/possessive forms in public statements, direct quotes from source agencies, or written posts on his personal social media accounts (Twitter/Truth Social) between October 19, 2026, at 10:30 a.m. ET and October 26, 2026, at 12:00 a.m. ET. The exact phrase must be used, and grammatical or tense variations do not count. Official acts such as executive orders or signed bills are excluded from qualifying statements. Each phrase functions independently, with any single valid usage triggering a market resolution to Yes.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a unique perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts. While polls and expert opinions attempt to gauge the likelihood of certain events, this market reflects what individuals are willing to put their money on. This often leads to different probabilities, as market participants have a financial incentive to be accurate in their assessments. Discrepancies can arise from differing methodologies, biases in polling, or simply the collective wisdom of the crowd expressed through trading activity. It's a fascinating comparison to see how informed speculation translates into market-based predictions.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning buyers and sellers set the prices for each outcome based on their beliefs. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective expectation of whether a particular statement will be made. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a 'yes' outcome represents the probability of that statement occurring, while the price of a 'no' outcome represents the probability of it not occurring. Traders can buy or sell contracts on these outcomes, aiming to profit from correctly predicting the future.
This market will resolve around Oct 26, 2026. The outcome will be determined by a review of publicly available transcripts and video recordings of statements made by Donald Trump during the specified period. Verification will be against credible public reporting to confirm whether any of the statements listed in the market occurred. The market’s resolution isn’t based on any single source, but a comprehensive assessment of available evidence.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Any major political event involving Donald Trump, such as rallies, debates, or legal proceedings, could prompt new statements and shift the probabilities. Unexpected news coverage, particularly regarding controversial topics, is also likely to move the market. Additionally, statements made by prominent political figures reacting to Trump’s actions could influence trading activity. Finally, shifts in public opinion, as measured by polls, might correlate with changes in this market.
